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Key figures › Budgets

UK Budgets and fiscal events since 2010: OBR forecasts beside the outturn

Since June 2010 the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has published 33 official forecasts for the economy and the public finances, most of them on the day of a Budget or Statement. This page lists those forecasts and the 6 Spending Reviews and other fiscal events since 2010 that came without one. Each event's page sets the OBR's headline forecasts for growth, inflation, borrowing and debt beside the outturn as the ONS and the OBR publish it now, and names the Chancellor of the Exchequer at the time (7 since 2010, according to GOV.UK).

The latest OBR forecast is the Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2026, published on 3 March 2026.

DateEventChancellorOBR GDP growth forecastOBR borrowing forecast
3 March 2026Spring Forecast 2026Rachel Reeves1.1% (2026)£132.7 billion (2025-26)
26 November 2025Budget 2025Rachel Reeves1.5% (2025)£138.3 billion (2025-26)
11 June 2025Spending Review 2025Rachel Reeves––
26 March 2025Spring Statement 2025Rachel Reeves1.0% (2025)£137.3 billion (2024-25)
30 October 2024Autumn Budget 2024Rachel Reeves1.1% (2024)£127.5 billion (2024-25)
6 March 2024Spring Budget 2024Jeremy Hunt0.8% (2024)£114.1 billion (2023-24)
22 November 2023Autumn Statement 2023Jeremy Hunt0.6% (2023)£123.9 billion (2023-24)
15 March 2023Spring Budget 2023Jeremy Hunt-0.2% (2023)£152.4 billion (2022-23)
17 November 2022Autumn Statement 2022Jeremy Hunt4.2% (2022)£177.0 billion (2022-23)
23 September 2022The Growth Plan 2022Kwasi Kwarteng––
23 March 2022Spring Statement 2022Rishi Sunak3.8% (2022)£127.8 billion (2021-22)
27 October 2021Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021Rishi Sunak6.5% (2021)£183.0 billion (2021-22)
3 March 2021Budget 2021Rishi Sunak4.0% (2021)£354.6 billion (2020-21)
25 November 2020Spending Review 2020Rishi Sunak-11.3% (2020)£393.5 billion (2020-21)
8 July 2020A Plan for Jobs 2020Rishi Sunak––
11 March 2020Budget 2020Rishi Sunak1.1% (2020)£47.4 billion (2019-20)
4 September 2019Spending Round 2019Sajid Javid––
13 March 2019Spring Statement 2019Philip Hammond1.2% (2019)£22.8 billion (2018-19)
29 October 2018Budget 2018Philip Hammond1.3% (2018)£25.5 billion (2018-19)
13 March 2018Spring Statement 2018Philip Hammond1.5% (2018)£45.2 billion (2017-18)
22 November 2017Autumn Budget 2017Philip Hammond1.5% (2017)£49.9 billion (2017-18)
8 March 2017Spring Budget 2017Philip Hammond2.0% (2017)£51.7 billion (2016-17)
23 November 2016Autumn Statement 2016Philip Hammond2.1% (2016)£68.2 billion (2016-17)
16 March 2016Budget 2016George Osborne2.0% (2016)£72.2 billion (2015-16)
25 November 2015Spending Review and Autumn Statement 2015George Osborne2.4% (2015)£73.5 billion (2015-16)
8 July 2015Summer Budget 2015George Osborne2.4% (2015)£69.5 billion (2015-16)
18 March 2015Budget 2015George Osborne2.5% (2015)£90.2 billion (2014-15)
3 December 2014Autumn Statement 2014George Osborne3.0% (2014)£91.3 billion (2014-15)
19 March 2014Budget 2014George Osborne2.7% (2014)£95.6 billion (2013-14)
5 December 2013Autumn Statement 2013George Osborne1.4% (2013)£99.0 billion (2013-14)
26 June 2013Spending Round 2013George Osborne––
20 March 2013Budget 2013George Osborne0.6% (2013)£86.5 billion (2012-13)
5 December 2012Autumn Statement 2012George Osborne-0.1% (2012)£80.5 billion (2012-13)
21 March 2012Budget 2012George Osborne0.8% (2012)£126.0 billion (2011-12)
29 November 2011Autumn Statement 2011George Osborne0.9% (2011)£127.0 billion (2011-12)
23 March 2011Budget 2011George Osborne1.7% (2011)£145.9 billion (2010-11)
29 November 2010OBR forecast, November 2010George Osborne1.8% (2010)£148.5 billion (2010-11)
20 October 2010Spending Review 2010George Osborne––
22 June 2010Budget June 2010George Osborne1.2% (2010)£149.1 billion (2010-11)

The forecast columns show the OBR's forecast at each event for the calendar year (growth) and financial year (borrowing) in which the event took place. "–" means the OBR did not publish a forecast with that event.

Forecasts by key figure

Government departments: spending, staff and ministers

How the forecasts and outturns are compared

Each event page gives the OBR's forecasts at that event for real GDP growth and CPI inflation (calendar years), and for public sector net borrowing and net debt (financial years, April to March), as recorded in the OBR's historical official forecasts database. Beside them is the outturn as published now: GDP growth from ONS series IHYP, CPI inflation from ONS series D7G7 (calendar-year average), and borrowing and debt from the OBR's public finances databank, whose outturn matches the ONS public sector finances release of 22 September 2026. Where the OBR published an earlier forecast, its figures for the same years are shown too. The OBR's forecasts use the definitions of borrowing and debt in force at the time; the outturn uses the definitions now published.

Forecasts and outturns are set side by side as the publishers give them. Later revisions to the data, changes in definitions and policy decisions taken after a forecast all affect the comparison; this page does not judge any forecast.

Sources