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Autumn Statement 2012
5 December 2012 · Chancellor of the Exchequer: George Osborne
Autumn Statement 2012 was presented on 5 December 2012, when George Osborne was Chancellor of the Exchequer. The OBR published its December 2012 Economic and fiscal outlook the same day. It forecast GDP growth of -0.1% for 2012; the ONS now reports 1.5%, above the forecast. For CPI inflation in 2012 it forecast 2.8%, and the ONS now reports 2.8%. It put public sector net borrowing for 2012-13 at £80.5 billion (5.1% of GDP); the outturn now published is £123.6 billion (7.1% of GDP). Net debt at the end of 2012-13 was forecast at 74.7% of GDP, against 77.2% in the latest outturn. Compared with the previous OBR forecast (Budget 2012), the borrowing forecast for 2013-14 moved from £98.0 billion to £99.3 billion.
| Year | OBR forecast, December 2012 | ONS outturn |
|---|
| 2012 | -0.1% | 1.5% |
| 2013 | 1.2% | 1.7% |
| 2014 | 2.0% | 3.2% |
| 2015 | 2.3% | 2.1% |
| 2016 | 2.7% | 2.2% |
| 2017 | 2.8% | 3.0% |
| Year | OBR forecast, December 2012 | ONS outturn |
|---|
| 2012 | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 2013 | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| 2014 | 2.2% | 1.5% |
| 2015 | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 2017 | 2.0% | 2.7% |
| Financial year | OBR forecast, December 2012 | Outturn (OBR databank) | Forecast, per cent of GDP | Outturn, per cent of GDP |
|---|
| 2012-13 | £80.5 billion | £123.6 billion | 5.1% | 7.1% |
| 2013-14 | £99.3 billion | £102.4 billion | 6.1% | 5.7% |
| 2014-15 | £87.9 billion | £98.1 billion | 5.2% | 5.2% |
| 2015-16 | £73.3 billion | £80.1 billion | 4.2% | 4.1% |
| 2016-17 | £49.0 billion | £57.1 billion | 2.6% | 2.8% |
| 2017-18 | £31.2 billion | £61.4 billion | 1.6% | 2.9% |
| Financial year | OBR forecast, December 2012 | Outturn (OBR databank) |
|---|
| 2012-13 | 74.7% | 77.2% |
| 2013-14 | 76.8% | 78.8% |
| 2014-15 | 79.0% | 81.1% |
| 2015-16 | 79.9% | 80.6% |
| 2016-17 | 79.2% | 82.7% |
| 2017-18 | 77.3% | 81.7% |
Other OBR forecasts at Autumn Statement 2012
| Financial year | 2012-13 | 2013-14 | 2014-15 |
|---|
| Public sector current receipts | £593.8 billion | £620.6 billion | £643.0 billion |
| Total managed expenditure | £674.3 billion | £719.9 billion | £731.0 billion |
| Central government gross debt interest | £47.1 billion | £48.6 billion | £51.8 billion |
OBR forecasts as recorded in its historical official forecasts database. Each linked figure's forecast page sets every forecast beside the outturn.
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Sources
Forecasts from the OBR's historical official forecasts database; outturns from the ONS and the OBR public finances databank. How the forecasts and outturns are compared, and every data file read.