UK unemployment rate forecast
In its March 2026 Economic and fiscal outlook, published on 3 March 2026, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast ILO unemployment rate of 5.3% for 2026 and 4.1% for 2030. The forecast for 2026 is above the 4.9% the OBR forecast in November 2025 (Budget 2025). Across the forecast years the highest value is 5.3%, first in 2026, and the lowest 4.1%, first in 2030. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Report of 30 July 2026 gives a central projection for unemployment rate of 5.0% in 2026 Q3 and 5.0% in 2029 Q3. The latest outturn in the ONS series is 4.9% for 2025.
ILO unemployment rate: the OBR's latest forecast
| Year | March 2026 forecast (Spring Forecast 2026) | November 2025 forecast (Budget 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3% | 4.9% |
| 2027 | 4.9% | 4.6% |
| 2028 | 4.4% | 4.3% |
| 2029 | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 2030 | 4.1% | 4.1% |
Source: OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2026, as recorded in the OBR's historical official forecasts database.
ILO unemployment rate: past OBR forecasts and the outturn
Forecasts made for the following year range from 3.7% (made at Budget 2018 for 2019) to 8.7% (made at Autumn Statement 2011 for 2012).
| Forecast made | Year | Forecast | Outturn | Year | Forecast | Outturn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget 2025 26 November 2025 | 2025 | 4.8% | 4.9% | 2026 | 4.9% | – |
| Spring Statement 2025 26 March 2025 | 2025 | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2026 | 4.3% | – |
| Autumn Budget 2024 30 October 2024 | 2024 | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2025 | 4.1% | 4.9% |
| Spring Budget 2024 6 March 2024 | 2024 | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2025 | 4.4% | 4.9% |
| Autumn Statement 2023 22 November 2023 | 2023 | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2024 | 4.6% | 4.3% |
| Spring Budget 2023 15 March 2023 | 2023 | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2024 | 4.4% | 4.3% |
| Autumn Statement 2022 17 November 2022 | 2022 | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2023 | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Spring Statement 2022 23 March 2022 | 2022 | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2023 | 4.2% | 4.1% |
| Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021 27 October 2021 | 2021 | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2022 | 4.8% | 3.8% |
| Budget 2021 3 March 2021 | 2021 | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2022 | 5.9% | 3.8% |
| Spending Review 2020 25 November 2020 | 2020 | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2021 | 6.8% | 4.6% |
| Budget 2020 11 March 2020 | 2020 | 3.8% | 4.6% | 2021 | 3.8% | 4.6% |
| Spring Statement 2019 13 March 2019 | 2019 | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2020 | 4.1% | 4.6% |
| Budget 2018 29 October 2018 | 2018 | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2019 | 3.7% | 3.8% |
| Spring Statement 2018 13 March 2018 | 2018 | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2019 | 4.5% | 3.8% |
| Autumn Budget 2017 22 November 2017 | 2017 | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2018 | 4.3% | 4.1% |
| Spring Budget 2017 8 March 2017 | 2017 | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2018 | 5.1% | 4.1% |
| Autumn Statement 2016 23 November 2016 | 2016 | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2017 | 5.2% | 4.4% |
| Budget 2016 16 March 2016 | 2016 | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2017 | 5.0% | 4.4% |
| Spending Review and Autumn Statement 2015 25 November 2015 | 2015 | 5.5% | 5.4% | 2016 | 5.2% | 4.9% |
| Summer Budget 2015 8 July 2015 | 2015 | 5.4% | 5.4% | 2016 | 5.1% | 4.9% |
| Budget 2015 18 March 2015 | 2015 | 5.3% | 5.4% | 2016 | 5.2% | 4.9% |
| Autumn Statement 2014 3 December 2014 | 2014 | 6.2% | 6.2% | 2015 | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Budget 2014 19 March 2014 | 2014 | 6.8% | 6.2% | 2015 | 6.5% | 5.4% |
| Autumn Statement 2013 5 December 2013 | 2013 | 7.6% | 7.6% | 2014 | 7.1% | 6.2% |
| Budget 2013 20 March 2013 | 2013 | 7.9% | 7.6% | 2014 | 8.0% | 6.2% |
| Autumn Statement 2012 5 December 2012 | 2012 | 8.0% | 7.9% | 2013 | 8.2% | 7.6% |
| Budget 2012 21 March 2012 | 2012 | 8.7% | 7.9% | 2013 | 8.6% | 7.6% |
| Autumn Statement 2011 29 November 2011 | 2011 | 8.1% | 8.1% | 2012 | 8.7% | 7.9% |
| Budget 2011 23 March 2011 | 2011 | 8.2% | 8.1% | 2012 | 8.1% | 7.9% |
| OBR forecast, November 2010 29 November 2010 | 2010 | 7.9% | 7.9% | 2011 | 8.0% | 8.1% |
| Budget June 2010 22 June 2010 | 2010 | 8.1% | 7.9% | 2011 | 8.0% | 8.1% |
Forecasts: OBR historical official forecasts database (Spring 2026 edition), which records each forecast in the definitions used at the time. Outturn: ONS, series MGSX (unemployment rate, aged 16 and over, calendar-year value). "–" means the forecast did not cover that year or the outturn is not yet published.
Bank of England projection
ILO unemployment rate (ONS series MGSX), central projection. Projections are for the quarter shown, as the Bank publishes them, so they are not directly comparable with the OBR's calendar-year or financial-year figures.
| Quarter | July 2026 Report (30 July 2026) |
|---|---|
| 2026 Q3 | 5.0% |
| 2027 Q3 | 5.3% |
| 2028 Q3 | 5.2% |
| 2029 Q3 | 5.0% |
Source: Bank of England, Monetary Policy Report, July 2026, Table 3.B, central projection.
| Quarter | February 2026 Report (5 February 2026) |
|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 | 5.2% |
| 2027 Q1 | 5.3% |
| 2028 Q1 | 5.1% |
| 2029 Q1 | 4.9% |
Source: Bank of England, Monetary Policy Report, February 2026, Table 3.A. The April 2026 Report (30 April 2026) published scenarios rather than a single central projection.
What the OBR forecasts
The OBR's forecast here is the ILO unemployment rate, as a calendar-year average. It is the official forecast that the Government's Budgets and Statements are judged against under the Charter for Budget Responsibility. 32 earlier OBR forecasts are listed above with the outturn now recorded.
Forecasts and outturns are set side by side as the publishers give them. Later revisions to the data, changes in definitions and policy decisions taken after a forecast all affect the comparison; this page does not judge any forecast.
More on this figure: UK unemployment rate: latest · full history · every Budget and OBR forecast since 2010.
Sources
- Office for Budget Responsibility: historical official forecasts database (Spring 2026) · file read 15 October 2026 · SHA-256
e00b17cb7ec8… - ONS: unemployment rate (MGSX) · file read 15 October 2026 · SHA-256
a749d9c99901… - Bank of England: Monetary Policy Report, July 2026 read 15 October 2026 · SHA-256
6a98059fe4d7… - Bank of England: Monetary Policy Report, February 2026 read 15 October 2026 · SHA-256
c4e8a8a2c7f9… - Bank of England: Monetary Policy Report, April 2026 read 15 October 2026 · SHA-256
011fdf3f26ce… - OBR: Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2026 read 15 October 2026 · SHA-256
842542d02afd…