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Budget 2021
3 March 2021 · Chancellor of the Exchequer: Rishi Sunak
Budget 2021 was presented on 3 March 2021, when Rishi Sunak was Chancellor of the Exchequer. The OBR published its March 2021 Economic and fiscal outlook the same day. It forecast GDP growth of 4.0% for 2021; the ONS now reports 8.5%, above the forecast. For CPI inflation in 2021 it forecast 1.5%, and the ONS now reports 2.6%. It put public sector net borrowing for 2020-21 at £354.6 billion (16.9% of GDP); the outturn now published is £310.8 billion (14.7% of GDP). Net debt at the end of 2020-21 was forecast at 100.2% of GDP, against 95.5% in the latest outturn. Compared with the previous OBR forecast (Spending Review 2020), the borrowing forecast for 2021-22 moved from £164.2 billion to £233.9 billion.
| Year | OBR forecast, March 2021 | ONS outturn |
|---|
| 2021 | 4.0% | 8.5% |
| 2022 | 7.3% | 5.1% |
| 2023 | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| 2024 | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| 2025 | 1.7% | 1.3% |
| Year | OBR forecast, March 2021 | ONS outturn |
|---|
| 2021 | 1.5% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | 1.8% | 9.1% |
| 2023 | 1.9% | 7.3% |
| 2024 | 1.9% | 2.5% |
| 2025 | 2.0% | 3.4% |
| Financial year | OBR forecast, March 2021 | Outturn (OBR databank) | Forecast, per cent of GDP | Outturn, per cent of GDP |
|---|
| 2020-21 | £354.6 billion | £310.8 billion | 16.9% | 14.7% |
| 2021-22 | £233.9 billion | £116.0 billion | 10.3% | 4.8% |
| 2022-23 | £106.9 billion | £123.8 billion | 4.5% | 4.7% |
| 2023-24 | £85.3 billion | £135.2 billion | 3.5% | 4.8% |
| 2024-25 | £74.4 billion | £149.8 billion | 2.9% | 5.1% |
| 2025-26 | £73.7 billion | £134.3 billion | 2.8% | 4.4% |
| Financial year | OBR forecast, March 2021 | Outturn (OBR databank) |
|---|
| 2020-21 | 100.2% | 95.5% |
| 2021-22 | 107.4% | 94.3% |
| 2022-23 | 109.0% | 93.1% |
| 2023-24 | 109.7% | 94.1% |
| 2024-25 | 106.2% | 93.4% |
| 2025-26 | 103.8% | 93.3% |
Other OBR forecasts at Budget 2021
| Financial year | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
|---|
| Public sector current receipts | £786.3 billion | £819.3 billion | £885.4 billion |
| Total managed expenditure | £1,140.9 billion | £1,053.3 billion | £992.3 billion |
| Central government gross debt interest | £39.8 billion | £42.6 billion | £41.1 billion |
OBR forecasts as recorded in its historical official forecasts database. Each linked figure's forecast page sets every forecast beside the outturn.
← Spending Review 2020 · Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021 →
Sources
Forecasts from the OBR's historical official forecasts database; outturns from the ONS and the OBR public finances databank. How the forecasts and outturns are compared, and every data file read.