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Spring Statement 2025
26 March 2025 · Chancellor of the Exchequer: Rachel Reeves
Spring Statement 2025 was presented on 26 March 2025, when Rachel Reeves was Chancellor of the Exchequer. The OBR published its March 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook the same day. It forecast GDP growth of 1.0% for 2025; the ONS now reports 1.3%, above the forecast. For CPI inflation in 2025 it forecast 3.2%, and the ONS now reports 3.4%. It put public sector net borrowing for 2024-25 at £137.3 billion (4.8% of GDP); the outturn now published is £149.8 billion (5.1% of GDP). Net debt at the end of 2024-25 was forecast at 95.9% of GDP, against 93.4% in the latest outturn. Compared with the previous OBR forecast (Autumn Budget 2024), the borrowing forecast for 2025-26 moved from £105.6 billion to £117.7 billion.
| Year | OBR forecast, March 2025 | ONS outturn |
|---|
| 2025 | 1.0% | 1.3% |
| 2026 | 1.9% | not yet published |
| 2027 | 1.8% | not yet published |
| 2028 | 1.7% | not yet published |
| 2029 | 1.8% | not yet published |
| Year | OBR forecast, March 2025 | ONS outturn |
|---|
| 2025 | 3.2% | 3.4% |
| 2026 | 2.1% | not yet published |
| 2027 | 2.0% | not yet published |
| 2028 | 2.0% | not yet published |
| 2029 | 2.0% | not yet published |
| Financial year | OBR forecast, March 2025 | Outturn (OBR databank) | Forecast, per cent of GDP | Outturn, per cent of GDP |
|---|
| 2024-25 | £137.3 billion | £149.8 billion | 4.8% | 5.1% |
| 2025-26 | £117.7 billion | £134.3 billion | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| 2026-27 | £97.2 billion | not yet published | 3.1% | – |
| 2027-28 | £80.2 billion | not yet published | 2.5% | – |
| 2028-29 | £77.4 billion | not yet published | 2.3% | – |
| 2029-30 | £74.0 billion | not yet published | 2.1% | – |
| Financial year | OBR forecast, March 2025 | Outturn (OBR databank) |
|---|
| 2024-25 | 95.9% | 93.4% |
| 2025-26 | 95.1% | 93.3% |
| 2026-27 | 95.8% | not yet published |
| 2027-28 | 96.1% | not yet published |
| 2028-29 | 96.3% | not yet published |
| 2029-30 | 96.1% | not yet published |
Other OBR forecasts at Spring Statement 2025
| Financial year | 2024-25 | 2025-26 | 2026-27 |
|---|
| Public sector current receipts | £1,141.2 billion | £1,229.5 billion | £1,292.3 billion |
| Total managed expenditure | £1,278.6 billion | £1,347.2 billion | £1,389.5 billion |
| Central government gross debt interest | £86.7 billion | £100.4 billion | £103.8 billion |
OBR forecasts as recorded in its historical official forecasts database. Each linked figure's forecast page sets every forecast beside the outturn.
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Sources
Forecasts from the OBR's historical official forecasts database; outturns from the ONS and the OBR public finances databank. How the forecasts and outturns are compared, and every data file read.