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Spring Statement 2019

13 March 2019 · Chancellor of the Exchequer: Philip Hammond

Spring Statement 2019 was presented on 13 March 2019, when Philip Hammond was Chancellor of the Exchequer. The OBR published its March 2019 Economic and fiscal outlook the same day. It forecast GDP growth of 1.2% for 2019; the ONS now reports 1.3%, above the forecast. For CPI inflation in 2019 it forecast 2.1%, and the ONS now reports 1.8%. It put public sector net borrowing for 2018-19 at £22.8 billion (1.1% of GDP); the outturn now published is £44.1 billion (2.0% of GDP). Net debt at the end of 2018-19 was forecast at 83.3% of GDP, against 79.7% in the latest outturn. Compared with the previous OBR forecast (Budget 2018), the borrowing forecast for 2019-20 moved from £31.8 billion to £29.3 billion.

GDP growth (real, calendar year)

Year	OBR forecast, March 2019	ONS outturn
2019	1.2%	1.3%
2020	1.4%	-10.0%
2021	1.6%	8.5%
2022	1.6%	5.1%
2023	1.6%	0.3%

CPI inflation (calendar-year average)

Year	OBR forecast, March 2019	ONS outturn
2019	2.1%	1.8%
2020	1.9%	0.9%
2021	2.0%	2.6%
2022	2.0%	9.1%
2023	2.0%	7.3%

Public sector net borrowing

Financial year	OBR forecast, March 2019	Outturn (OBR databank)	Forecast, per cent of GDP	Outturn, per cent of GDP
2018-19	£22.8 billion	£44.1 billion	1.1%	2.0%
2019-20	£29.3 billion	£58.8 billion	1.3%	2.6%
2020-21	£21.2 billion	£310.8 billion	0.9%	14.7%
2021-22	£17.6 billion	£116.0 billion	0.7%	4.8%
2022-23	£14.4 billion	£123.8 billion	0.6%	4.7%
2023-24	£13.5 billion	£135.2 billion	0.5%	4.8%

Public sector net debt (per cent of GDP)

Financial year	OBR forecast, March 2019	Outturn (OBR databank)
2018-19	83.3%	79.7%
2019-20	82.2%	84.5%
2020-21	79.0%	95.5%
2021-22	74.9%	94.3%
2022-23	74.0%	93.1%
2023-24	73.0%	94.1%

Other OBR forecasts at Spring Statement 2019

Calendar year	2019	2020	2021
ILO unemployment rate	4.1%	4.1%	4.1%
RPI inflation	2.9%	2.8%	3.0%
Average earnings growth	3.1%	3.0%	3.1%
House price growth	0.8%	1.3%	3.7%
Real household disposable income growth	0.7%	1.1%	1.6%

Financial year	2018-19	2019-20	2020-21
Public sector current receipts	£789.0 billion	£811.4 billion	£844.0 billion
Total managed expenditure	£811.8 billion	£840.7 billion	£865.2 billion
Central government gross debt interest	£48.9 billion	£51.1 billion	£48.7 billion

OBR forecasts as recorded in its historical official forecasts database. Each linked figure's forecast page sets every forecast beside the outturn.

← Budget 2018 · Spending Round 2019 →

Sources

HM Treasury (GOV.UK): Spring Statement 2019: Written Ministerial Statement read 15 October 2026 · SHA-256 9e8a8d859fea…
OBR: Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2019 read 15 October 2026 · SHA-256 eab8e9b392e1…
GOV.UK: Philip Hammond, Chancellor of the Exchequer from 13 July 2016

Forecasts from the OBR's historical official forecasts database; outturns from the ONS and the OBR public finances databank. How the forecasts and outturns are compared, and every data file read.