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Budget 2018
29 October 2018 · Chancellor of the Exchequer: Philip Hammond
Budget 2018 was presented on 29 October 2018, when Philip Hammond was Chancellor of the Exchequer. The OBR published its October 2018 Economic and fiscal outlook the same day. It forecast GDP growth of 1.3% for 2018; the ONS now reports 1.6%, above the forecast. For CPI inflation in 2018 it forecast 2.6%, and the ONS now reports 2.5%. It put public sector net borrowing for 2018-19 at £25.5 billion (1.2% of GDP); the outturn now published is £44.1 billion (2.0% of GDP). Net debt at the end of 2018-19 was forecast at 83.7% of GDP, against 79.7% in the latest outturn. Compared with the previous OBR forecast (Spring Statement 2018), the borrowing forecast for 2019-20 moved from £33.9 billion to £31.8 billion.
| Year | OBR forecast, October 2018 | ONS outturn |
|---|
| 2018 | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| 2019 | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| 2020 | 1.4% | -10.0% |
| 2021 | 1.4% | 8.5% |
| 2022 | 1.5% | 5.1% |
| 2023 | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Year | OBR forecast, October 2018 | ONS outturn |
|---|
| 2018 | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| 2019 | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| 2020 | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| 2021 | 2.1% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | 2.1% | 9.1% |
| 2023 | 2.0% | 7.3% |
| Financial year | OBR forecast, October 2018 | Outturn (OBR databank) | Forecast, per cent of GDP | Outturn, per cent of GDP |
|---|
| 2018-19 | £25.5 billion | £44.1 billion | 1.2% | 2.0% |
| 2019-20 | £31.8 billion | £58.8 billion | 1.4% | 2.6% |
| 2020-21 | £26.7 billion | £310.8 billion | 1.2% | 14.7% |
| 2021-22 | £23.8 billion | £116.0 billion | 1.0% | 4.8% |
| 2022-23 | £20.8 billion | £123.8 billion | 0.9% | 4.7% |
| 2023-24 | £19.8 billion | £135.2 billion | 0.8% | 4.8% |
| Financial year | OBR forecast, October 2018 | Outturn (OBR databank) |
|---|
| 2018-19 | 83.7% | 79.7% |
| 2019-20 | 82.8% | 84.5% |
| 2020-21 | 79.7% | 95.5% |
| 2021-22 | 75.7% | 94.3% |
| 2022-23 | 75.0% | 93.1% |
| 2023-24 | 74.1% | 94.1% |
Other OBR forecasts at Budget 2018
| Financial year | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 |
|---|
| Public sector current receipts | £787.3 billion | £809.8 billion | £840.4 billion |
| Total managed expenditure | £812.8 billion | £841.6 billion | £867.1 billion |
| Central government gross debt interest | £51.6 billion | £52.0 billion | £51.4 billion |
OBR forecasts as recorded in its historical official forecasts database. Each linked figure's forecast page sets every forecast beside the outturn.
← Spring Statement 2018 · Spring Statement 2019 →
Sources
Forecasts from the OBR's historical official forecasts database; outturns from the ONS and the OBR public finances databank. How the forecasts and outturns are compared, and every data file read.