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Summer Budget 2015
8 July 2015 · Chancellor of the Exchequer: George Osborne
Summer Budget 2015 was presented on 8 July 2015, when George Osborne was Chancellor of the Exchequer. The OBR published its July 2015 Economic and fiscal outlook the same day. It forecast GDP growth of 2.4% for 2015; the ONS now reports 2.1%, below the forecast. For CPI inflation in 2015 it forecast 0.1%, and the ONS now reports 0.0%. It put public sector net borrowing for 2015-16 at £69.5 billion (3.7% of GDP); the outturn now published is £80.1 billion (4.1% of GDP). Net debt at the end of 2015-16 was forecast at 80.3% of GDP, against 80.6% in the latest outturn. Compared with the previous OBR forecast (Budget 2015), the borrowing forecast for 2016-17 moved from £39.4 billion to £43.1 billion.
| Year | OBR forecast, July 2015 | ONS outturn |
|---|
| 2015 | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| 2016 | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| 2017 | 2.4% | 3.0% |
| 2018 | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| 2019 | 2.4% | 1.3% |
| 2020 | 2.4% | -10.0% |
| Year | OBR forecast, July 2015 | ONS outturn |
|---|
| 2015 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| 2017 | 1.6% | 2.7% |
| 2018 | 1.8% | 2.5% |
| 2019 | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| 2020 | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Financial year | OBR forecast, July 2015 | Outturn (OBR databank) | Forecast, per cent of GDP | Outturn, per cent of GDP |
|---|
| 2015-16 | £69.5 billion | £80.1 billion | 3.7% | 4.1% |
| 2016-17 | £43.1 billion | £57.1 billion | 2.2% | 2.8% |
| 2017-18 | £24.3 billion | £61.4 billion | 1.2% | 2.9% |
| 2018-19 | £6.4 billion | £44.1 billion | 0.3% | 2.0% |
| 2019-20 | -£10.0 billion | £58.8 billion | -0.4% | 2.6% |
| 2020-21 | -£11.6 billion | £310.8 billion | -0.5% | 14.7% |
| Financial year | OBR forecast, July 2015 | Outturn (OBR databank) |
|---|
| 2015-16 | 80.3% | 80.6% |
| 2016-17 | 79.1% | 82.7% |
| 2017-18 | 77.2% | 81.7% |
| 2018-19 | 74.7% | 79.7% |
| 2019-20 | 71.5% | 84.5% |
| 2020-21 | 68.5% | 95.5% |
Other OBR forecasts at Summer Budget 2015
| Financial year | 2015-16 | 2016-17 | 2017-18 |
|---|
| Public sector current receipts | £672.8 billion | £711.2 billion | £743.7 billion |
| Total managed expenditure | £742.3 billion | £754.3 billion | £768.0 billion |
| Central government gross debt interest | £46.7 billion | £51.1 billion | £55.9 billion |
OBR forecasts as recorded in its historical official forecasts database. Each linked figure's forecast page sets every forecast beside the outturn.
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Sources
Forecasts from the OBR's historical official forecasts database; outturns from the ONS and the OBR public finances databank. How the forecasts and outturns are compared, and every data file read.