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Autumn Statement 2011
29 November 2011 · Chancellor of the Exchequer: George Osborne
Autumn Statement 2011 was presented on 29 November 2011, when George Osborne was Chancellor of the Exchequer. The OBR published its November 2011 Economic and fiscal outlook the same day. It forecast GDP growth of 0.9% for 2011; the ONS now reports 0.9%, the same as the forecast. For CPI inflation in 2011 it forecast 4.5%, and the ONS now reports 4.5%. It put public sector net borrowing for 2011-12 at £127.0 billion (8.4% of GDP); the outturn now published is £122.1 billion (7.3% of GDP). Net debt at the end of 2011-12 was forecast at 67.5% of GDP, against 73.9% in the latest outturn. Compared with the previous OBR forecast (Budget 2011), the borrowing forecast for 2012-13 moved from £101.0 billion to £120.0 billion.
| Year | OBR forecast, November 2011 | ONS outturn |
|---|
| 2011 | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 2012 | 0.7% | 1.5% |
| 2013 | 2.1% | 1.7% |
| 2014 | 2.7% | 3.2% |
| 2015 | 3.0% | 2.1% |
| 2016 | 3.0% | 2.2% |
| Year | OBR forecast, November 2011 | ONS outturn |
|---|
| 2011 | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| 2012 | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| 2013 | 2.1% | 2.6% |
| 2014 | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| 2015 | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Financial year | OBR forecast, November 2011 | Outturn (OBR databank) | Forecast, per cent of GDP | Outturn, per cent of GDP |
|---|
| 2011-12 | £127.0 billion | £122.1 billion | 8.4% | 7.3% |
| 2012-13 | £120.0 billion | £123.6 billion | 7.6% | 7.1% |
| 2013-14 | £100.0 billion | £102.4 billion | 6.0% | 5.7% |
| 2014-15 | £79.0 billion | £98.1 billion | 4.5% | 5.2% |
| 2015-16 | £53.0 billion | £80.1 billion | 2.9% | 4.1% |
| 2016-17 | £24.0 billion | £57.1 billion | 1.2% | 2.8% |
| Financial year | OBR forecast, November 2011 | Outturn (OBR databank) |
|---|
| 2011-12 | 67.5% | 73.9% |
| 2012-13 | 73.3% | 77.2% |
| 2013-14 | 76.6% | 78.8% |
| 2014-15 | 78.0% | 81.1% |
| 2015-16 | 77.7% | 80.6% |
| 2016-17 | 75.8% | 82.7% |
Other OBR forecasts at Autumn Statement 2011
| Financial year | 2011-12 | 2012-13 | 2013-14 |
|---|
| Public sector current receipts | £575.5 billion | £594.4 billion | £623.6 billion |
| Total managed expenditure | £702.6 billion | £714.5 billion | £723.1 billion |
| Central government gross debt interest | £47.6 billion | £47.1 billion | £50.5 billion |
OBR forecasts as recorded in its historical official forecasts database. Each linked figure's forecast page sets every forecast beside the outturn.
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Sources
Forecasts from the OBR's historical official forecasts database; outturns from the ONS and the OBR public finances databank. How the forecasts and outturns are compared, and every data file read.