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Autumn Budget 2017

22 November 2017 · Chancellor of the Exchequer: Philip Hammond

Autumn Budget 2017 was presented on 22 November 2017, when Philip Hammond was Chancellor of the Exchequer. The OBR published its November 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook the same day. It forecast GDP growth of 1.5% for 2017; the ONS now reports 3.0%, above the forecast. For CPI inflation in 2017 it forecast 2.7%, and the ONS now reports 2.7%. It put public sector net borrowing for 2017-18 at £49.9 billion (2.4% of GDP); the outturn now published is £61.4 billion (2.9% of GDP). Net debt at the end of 2017-18 was forecast at 86.5% of GDP, against 81.7% in the latest outturn. Compared with the previous OBR forecast (Spring Budget 2017), the borrowing forecast for 2018-19 moved from £40.8 billion to £39.5 billion.

GDP growth (real, calendar year)

YearOBR forecast, November 2017ONS outturn
20171.5%3.0%
20181.4%1.6%
20191.3%1.3%
20201.3%-10.0%
20211.5%8.5%
20221.6%5.1%

CPI inflation (calendar-year average)

YearOBR forecast, November 2017ONS outturn
20172.7%2.7%
20182.4%2.5%
20191.9%1.8%
20202.0%0.9%
20212.0%2.6%
20222.0%9.1%

Public sector net borrowing

Financial yearOBR forecast, November 2017Outturn (OBR databank)Forecast, per cent of GDPOutturn, per cent of GDP
2017-18£49.9 billion£61.4 billion2.4%2.9%
2018-19£39.5 billion£44.1 billion1.9%2.0%
2019-20£34.7 billion£58.8 billion1.6%2.6%
2020-21£32.8 billion£310.8 billion1.5%14.7%
2021-22£30.1 billion£116.0 billion1.3%4.8%
2022-23£25.6 billion£123.8 billion1.1%4.7%

Public sector net debt (per cent of GDP)

Financial yearOBR forecast, November 2017Outturn (OBR databank)
2017-1886.5%81.7%
2018-1986.4%79.7%
2019-2086.1%84.5%
2020-2183.1%95.5%
2021-2279.3%94.3%
2022-2379.1%93.1%

Other OBR forecasts at Autumn Budget 2017

Calendar year201720182019
ILO unemployment rate4.4%4.3%4.4%
RPI inflation3.6%3.3%2.8%
Average earnings growth2.3%2.3%2.3%
House price growth4.4%2.9%2.9%
Real household disposable income growth-0.2%0.8%0.3%
Financial year2017-182018-192019-20
Public sector current receipts£745.4 billion£769.8 billion£792.0 billion
Total managed expenditure£795.3 billion£809.3 billion£826.7 billion
Central government gross debt interest£54.7 billion£51.5 billion£50.6 billion

OBR forecasts as recorded in its historical official forecasts database. Each linked figure's forecast page sets every forecast beside the outturn.

← Spring Budget 2017 · Spring Statement 2018 →

Sources

Forecasts from the OBR's historical official forecasts database; outturns from the ONS and the OBR public finances databank. How the forecasts and outturns are compared, and every data file read.