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Spring Budget 2017

8 March 2017 · Chancellor of the Exchequer: Philip Hammond

Spring Budget 2017 was presented on 8 March 2017, when Philip Hammond was Chancellor of the Exchequer. The OBR published its March 2017 Economic and fiscal outlook the same day. It forecast GDP growth of 2.0% for 2017; the ONS now reports 3.0%, above the forecast. For CPI inflation in 2017 it forecast 2.4%, and the ONS now reports 2.7%. It put public sector net borrowing for 2016-17 at £51.7 billion (2.6% of GDP); the outturn now published is £57.1 billion (2.8% of GDP). Net debt at the end of 2016-17 was forecast at 86.6% of GDP, against 82.7% in the latest outturn. Compared with the previous OBR forecast (Autumn Statement 2016), the borrowing forecast for 2017-18 moved from £59.0 billion to £58.3 billion.

GDP growth (real, calendar year)

YearOBR forecast, March 2017ONS outturn
20172.0%3.0%
20181.6%1.6%
20191.7%1.3%
20201.9%-10.0%
20212.0%8.5%

CPI inflation (calendar-year average)

YearOBR forecast, March 2017ONS outturn
20172.4%2.7%
20182.3%2.5%
20192.0%1.8%
20202.0%0.9%
20212.0%2.6%

Public sector net borrowing

Financial yearOBR forecast, March 2017Outturn (OBR databank)Forecast, per cent of GDPOutturn, per cent of GDP
2016-17£51.7 billion£57.1 billion2.6%2.8%
2017-18£58.3 billion£61.4 billion2.9%2.9%
2018-19£40.8 billion£44.1 billion1.9%2.0%
2019-20£21.4 billion£58.8 billion1.0%2.6%
2020-21£20.6 billion£310.8 billion0.9%14.7%
2021-22£16.8 billion£116.0 billion0.7%4.8%

Public sector net debt (per cent of GDP)

Financial yearOBR forecast, March 2017Outturn (OBR databank)
2016-1786.6%82.7%
2017-1888.8%81.7%
2018-1988.5%79.7%
2019-2086.9%84.5%
2020-2183.0%95.5%
2021-2279.8%94.3%

Other OBR forecasts at Spring Budget 2017

Calendar year201720182019
ILO unemployment rate4.9%5.1%5.2%
RPI inflation3.7%3.6%3.1%
Average earnings growth2.6%2.7%3.0%
House price growth6.5%4.0%4.4%
Real household disposable income growth0.0%0.8%1.0%
Financial year2016-172017-182018-19
Public sector current receipts£721.1 billion£744.2 billion£776.4 billion
Total managed expenditure£772.8 billion£802.4 billion£817.2 billion
Central government gross debt interest£49.1 billion£55.8 billion£52.3 billion

OBR forecasts as recorded in its historical official forecasts database. Each linked figure's forecast page sets every forecast beside the outturn.

← Autumn Statement 2016 · Autumn Budget 2017 →

Sources

Forecasts from the OBR's historical official forecasts database; outturns from the ONS and the OBR public finances databank. How the forecasts and outturns are compared, and every data file read.