Key figures › Budgets › OBR forecast, November 2010
OBR forecast, November 2010
29 November 2010 · Chancellor of the Exchequer: George Osborne
The OBR published this forecast on 29 November 2010, when George Osborne was Chancellor of the Exchequer. HM Treasury did not hold a Budget or Statement with it. It forecast GDP growth of 1.8% for 2010; the ONS now reports 2.3%, above the forecast. For CPI inflation in 2010 it forecast 3.2%, and the ONS now reports 3.3%. It put public sector net borrowing for 2010-11 at £148.5 billion (10.0% of GDP); the outturn now published is £142.0 billion (8.7% of GDP). Net debt at the end of 2010-11 was forecast at 60.8% of GDP, against 70.6% in the latest outturn. Compared with the previous OBR forecast (Budget June 2010), the borrowing forecast for 2011-12 moved from £116.0 billion to £117.0 billion.
| Year | OBR forecast, November 2010 | ONS outturn |
|---|
| 2010 | 1.8% | 2.3% |
| 2011 | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| 2012 | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| 2013 | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| 2014 | 2.8% | 3.2% |
| 2015 | 2.7% | 2.1% |
| Year | OBR forecast, November 2010 | ONS outturn |
|---|
| 2010 | 3.2% | 3.3% |
| 2011 | 3.0% | 4.5% |
| 2012 | 1.9% | 2.8% |
| 2013 | 2.0% | 2.6% |
| 2014 | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| 2015 | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Financial year | OBR forecast, November 2010 | Outturn (OBR databank) | Forecast, per cent of GDP | Outturn, per cent of GDP |
|---|
| 2010-11 | £148.5 billion | £142.0 billion | 10.0% | 8.7% |
| 2011-12 | £117.0 billion | £122.1 billion | 7.6% | 7.3% |
| 2012-13 | £91.0 billion | £123.6 billion | 5.6% | 7.1% |
| 2013-14 | £60.0 billion | £102.4 billion | 3.5% | 5.7% |
| 2014-15 | £35.0 billion | £98.1 billion | 1.9% | 5.2% |
| 2015-16 | £18.0 billion | £80.1 billion | 1.0% | 4.1% |
| Financial year | OBR forecast, November 2010 | Outturn (OBR databank) |
|---|
| 2010-11 | 60.8% | 70.6% |
| 2011-12 | 66.3% | 73.9% |
| 2012-13 | 69.1% | 77.2% |
| 2013-14 | 69.7% | 78.8% |
| 2014-15 | 68.8% | 81.1% |
| 2015-16 | 67.2% | 80.6% |
Other OBR forecasts at OBR forecast, November 2010
| Financial year | 2010-11 | 2011-12 | 2012-13 |
|---|
| Public sector current receipts | £549.7 billion | £586.2 billion | £620.3 billion |
| Total managed expenditure | £698.2 billion | £703.7 billion | £711.3 billion |
| Central government gross debt interest | £42.7 billion | £44.0 billion | £48.6 billion |
OBR forecasts as recorded in its historical official forecasts database. Each linked figure's forecast page sets every forecast beside the outturn.
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Sources
Forecasts from the OBR's historical official forecasts database; outturns from the ONS and the OBR public finances databank. How the forecasts and outturns are compared, and every data file read.