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Budget 2014

19 March 2014 · Chancellor of the Exchequer: George Osborne

Budget 2014 was presented on 19 March 2014, when George Osborne was Chancellor of the Exchequer. The OBR published its March 2014 Economic and fiscal outlook the same day. It forecast GDP growth of 2.7% for 2014; the ONS now reports 3.2%, above the forecast. For CPI inflation in 2014 it forecast 1.9%, and the ONS now reports 1.5%. It put public sector net borrowing for 2013-14 at £95.6 billion (5.8% of GDP); the outturn now published is £102.4 billion (5.7% of GDP). Net debt at the end of 2013-14 was forecast at 74.5% of GDP, against 78.8% in the latest outturn. The borrowing forecast for 2014-15 was unchanged from the previous OBR forecast (Autumn Statement 2013) at £83.9 billion.

GDP growth (real, calendar year)

YearOBR forecast, March 2014ONS outturn
20142.7%3.2%
20152.3%2.1%
20162.6%2.2%
20172.6%3.0%
20182.5%1.6%

CPI inflation (calendar-year average)

YearOBR forecast, March 2014ONS outturn
20141.9%1.5%
20152.0%0.0%
20162.0%0.7%
20172.0%2.7%
20182.0%2.5%

Public sector net borrowing

Financial yearOBR forecast, March 2014Outturn (OBR databank)Forecast, per cent of GDPOutturn, per cent of GDP
2013-14£95.6 billion£102.4 billion5.8%5.7%
2014-15£83.9 billion£98.1 billion4.9%5.2%
2015-16£68.3 billion£80.1 billion3.8%4.1%
2016-17£41.5 billion£57.1 billion2.2%2.8%
2017-18£17.8 billion£61.4 billion0.9%2.9%
2018-19-£1.1 billion£44.1 billion-0.1%2.0%

Public sector net debt (per cent of GDP)

Financial yearOBR forecast, March 2014Outturn (OBR databank)
2013-1474.5%78.8%
2014-1577.3%81.1%
2015-1678.7%80.6%
2016-1778.3%82.7%
2017-1876.5%81.7%
2018-1974.2%79.7%

Other OBR forecasts at Budget 2014

Calendar year201420152016
ILO unemployment rate6.8%6.5%6.1%
RPI inflation2.6%3.2%3.6%
Average earnings growth2.5%3.2%3.6%
House price growth8.5%7.8%5.0%
Real household disposable income growth1.2%1.8%1.5%
Financial year2013-142014-152015-16
Public sector current receipts£619.8 billion£648.1 billion£675.4 billion
Total managed expenditure£715.5 billion£732.0 billion£743.6 billion
Central government gross debt interest£48.4 billion£52.1 billion£59.1 billion

OBR forecasts as recorded in its historical official forecasts database. Each linked figure's forecast page sets every forecast beside the outturn.

← Autumn Statement 2013 · Autumn Statement 2014 →

Sources

Forecasts from the OBR's historical official forecasts database; outturns from the ONS and the OBR public finances databank. How the forecasts and outturns are compared, and every data file read.