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Key figures › Budgets › Spring Forecast 2026

Spring Forecast 2026

3 March 2026 · Chancellor of the Exchequer: Rachel Reeves

Spring Forecast 2026 was presented on 3 March 2026, when Rachel Reeves was Chancellor of the Exchequer. The OBR published its March 2026 Economic and fiscal outlook the same day. It forecast GDP growth of 1.1% for 2026; the ONS has not yet published the outturn for that year. For CPI inflation in 2026 it forecast 2.3%. It put public sector net borrowing for 2025-26 at £132.7 billion (4.3% of GDP); the outturn now published is £134.3 billion (4.4% of GDP). Net debt at the end of 2025-26 was forecast at 94.3% of GDP, against 93.3% in the latest outturn. Compared with the previous OBR forecast (Budget 2025), the borrowing forecast for 2026-27 moved from £112.1 billion to £115.5 billion.

GDP growth (real, calendar year)

YearOBR forecast, March 2026ONS outturn
20261.1%not yet published
20271.6%not yet published
20281.6%not yet published
20291.5%not yet published
20301.5%not yet published

CPI inflation (calendar-year average)

YearOBR forecast, March 2026ONS outturn
20262.3%not yet published
20272.0%not yet published
20282.0%not yet published
20292.0%not yet published
20302.0%not yet published

Public sector net borrowing

Financial yearOBR forecast, March 2026Outturn (OBR databank)Forecast, per cent of GDPOutturn, per cent of GDP
2025-26£132.7 billion£134.3 billion4.3%4.4%
2026-27£115.5 billionnot yet published3.6%–
2027-28£96.5 billionnot yet published2.9%–
2028-29£86.0 billionnot yet published2.5%–
2029-30£63.4 billionnot yet published1.8%–
2030-31£59.0 billionnot yet published1.6%–

Public sector net debt (per cent of GDP)

Financial yearOBR forecast, March 2026Outturn (OBR databank)
2025-2694.3%93.3%
2026-2794.8%not yet published
2027-2895.7%not yet published
2028-2996.3%not yet published
2029-3096.1%not yet published
2030-3195.1%not yet published

Other OBR forecasts at Spring Forecast 2026

Calendar year202620272028
ILO unemployment rate5.3%4.9%4.4%
RPI inflation3.1%3.0%2.8%
Average earnings growth3.4%2.4%2.1%
House price growth2.4%2.9%2.7%
Real household disposable income growth0.6%0.7%0.8%
Financial year2025-262026-272027-28
Public sector current receipts£1,235.3 billion£1,303.8 billion£1,375.4 billion
Total managed expenditure£1,368.0 billion£1,419.3 billion£1,471.9 billion
Central government gross debt interest£98.5 billion£103.4 billion£111.4 billion

OBR forecasts as recorded in its historical official forecasts database. Each linked figure's forecast page sets every forecast beside the outturn.

← Budget 2025

Sources

Forecasts from the OBR's historical official forecasts database; outturns from the ONS and the OBR public finances databank. How the forecasts and outturns are compared, and every data file read.