UK monthly GDP growth

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS), series ECYX. Monthly, about six weeks after the month ends, 7am; next release 15 October 2026

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What it measures

The monthly GDP estimate measures how much the UK's economic output changed from one month to the next, after removing the effect of price changes. It is built from the output side: services, production (manufacturing, mining, energy and water) and construction, using monthly business surveys and other data. It is published about six weeks after the month ends, much sooner than full quarterly figures. The quarterly growth rate on the GDP growth page is the measure used to describe a recession, and the monthly figures feed into it.

How to read it

A single month is volatile: strikes, bank holidays, weather and even the number of working days can move it by a few tenths of a percentage point. For this reason the ONS headlines the three-month-on-three-month change alongside the monthly figure. A fall in one month is not a recession; the usual test is two consecutive quarters of falling GDP. Monthly estimates are revised as fuller data arrive and when the annual national accounts are rebalanced each autumn, so a 0.1% rise can later become a small fall. Use quarterly figures for comparisons with other countries.

Background

The ONS monthly series runs from January 1997. The largest monthly fall, minus 19.2%, was in April 2020 at the start of the first coronavirus lockdown, and the largest rise, 9.3%, was in June 2020 as restrictions eased. Calculated from the series, 95 of the 120 monthly changes between 2010 and 2019 were within half a percentage point either side of zero. The ONS said that the three months to July 2026 were the eighth consecutive three-month period of growth, and that the annual national accounts, Blue Book 2026, would be released on 30 October 2026.

Other parts of the UK

Scottish Government economy statistics, including monthly GDP for Scotland

Did the UK economy grow or shrink this month?

The figure at the top of this page is the latest monthly change. When this page was checked on 13 October 2026, the ONS estimated that GDP grew by 0.4% in July 2026, after growth of 0.3% in June and no growth in May. These estimates were published on 11 September 2026; the August figure was due on 15 October 2026.

What is the difference between monthly and quarterly GDP?

Monthly GDP is a quick estimate from the output side only. Quarterly GDP adds expenditure and income data and is revised more thoroughly, and it is the figure used to judge a recession and to compare with other countries. Summing three monthly changes does not exactly give the quarterly change, because quarterly growth compares average levels.

Is the UK in recession?

A recession is usually described as two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP. Check the quarterly figures on the GDP growth page; a single negative month does not meet that test.

Why does monthly GDP get revised?

Early estimates use incomplete survey returns and some forecast data. Later returns, VAT data and the annual Blue Book rebalancing all lead to revisions. The ONS publishes revisions triangles showing how much past estimates have changed.

Related questions

• Is the UK in recession?
• How big is the UK economy (GDP)?
• How does UK GDP compare with other countries?
• What is Scotland's GDP?
• What is UK GDP per capita?

More on this source: UK Statistics Authority and Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR)