Is the UK in recession?

In the UK a recession is usually described as two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP. The ONS reports quarter-on-quarter growth in its first quarterly estimate and in the later quarterly national accounts.

Early estimates are often revised, sometimes enough to remove or add a recession, so check the latest vintage before repeating an older claim. The ONS does not itself declare recessions; it publishes the figures.

Official sources: GDP first quarterly estimate (latest) · Quarterly national accounts

The latest figure

The newest value is at Office for National Statistics (ONS). More on it: UK GDP growth (quarterly).

When is the next figure out?

First quarterly estimate about six weeks after the quarter ends, revised in the quarterly national accounts at the end of the following quarter, 7am; next release 12 November 2026

Every official release due in the next two weeks is on the release calendar.

Terms used in this answer

• Quarter-on-quarter change
  The change from one three-month period to the next, such as April to June compared with January to March. Used for GDP growth.
• Seasonally adjusted
  Figures that have had regular calendar patterns removed, such as Christmas shopping or summer jobs, so that underlying movements between months or quarters can be seen.
• Chained volume measure
  The ONS method for showing GDP and other output after removing price changes, by linking year-to-year volume changes together. This is 'real' GDP.
• Revisions
  Changes to previously published figures, made when more complete data, improved methods or updated seasonal factors become available. A normal part of official statistics.
• Output gap
  The difference between what the economy is actually producing and an estimate of what it could produce sustainably. It cannot be measured directly.
• Technical recession
  Two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP. A widely used rule of thumb rather than a legal or official definition.

Where the figures come from

• UK labour market statistics (ONS, Nomis and the gender pay gap reporting service)
  How to find official UK figures on jobs, vacancies, zero-hours contracts, strikes, public sector jobs, sickness, inactivity and pay gaps, and check claims.
• UK trade statistics (ONS, HMRC uktradeinfo and Department for Business and Trade)
  Where to find official UK trade figures: the ONS trade bulletin and balance of payments, HMRC uktradeinfo by product code, and DBT country factsheets.

Related questions

• How big is the UK economy (GDP)?
• What is UK GDP per capita?
• How is UK productivity measured?

This answer says where the official figures are published and how they are defined. It gives no verdict on any claim. To report an error, send a correction request. More questions about economy, jobs and wages: all Economy, jobs and wages questions.