UK GDP growth (quarterly)

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS), series IHYQ. First quarterly estimate about six weeks after the quarter ends, revised in the quarterly national accounts at the end of the following quarter, 7am; next release 12 November 2026

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What it measures

Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the total value of goods and services produced in the UK economy. The figure here is the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of real GDP: the percentage change in output from the previous three months, after removing the effect of price changes (a chained volume measure) and adjusting for seasonal patterns. It is the figure behind headlines such as "the economy grew by 0.5%". For the size of the economy in pounds see nominal GDP; for output per person see GDP per head.

How to read it

Quarterly growth figures are small numbers, so a change of 0.1 percentage points can decide whether a quarter is called growth or contraction. The ONS first estimate is based on incomplete data and is routinely revised as more surveys and tax returns arrive; read how revisions work before treating a first estimate as final. The ONS also publishes monthly GDP (series ECYX), which is more volatile, and a year-on-year rate, which compares with the same quarter a year earlier. A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP. Growth in total GDP can differ from growth per person when the population is rising.

Background

The ONS quarter-on-quarter growth series starts in the second quarter of 1955. Its largest fall is minus 19.9% in Q2 2020 and its largest rise is 16.9% in Q3 2020, both during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The ONS began publishing monthly GDP estimates in July 2018, so a quarter's growth can be tracked month by month before the quarterly figure appears. Methods change from time to time, usually through the annual Blue Book, which can revise growth rates for earlier years.

Other parts of the UK

ONS: Regional economic activity by GDP · Scottish Government economy statistics (including quarterly GDP for Scotland) · NISRA: Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index

What is the difference between monthly and quarterly GDP?

Monthly GDP shows the change in output from one month to the next and is published about six weeks after the month ends. Quarterly GDP compares three months with the previous three, so it smooths out monthly swings caused by weather, strikes or holidays. The quarterly figure is the one used for official growth rates and for judging whether the UK is in recession.

How much is GDP usually revised?

Revisions vary, but the ONS publishes revisions analysis showing how first estimates of quarterly growth have changed over time. Most revisions are a few tenths of a percentage point, and larger ones can follow annual Blue Book updates. When quoting growth for a past quarter, use the latest estimate in the time series rather than the first headline.

Does GDP growth include inflation?

No. The headline growth rate is real growth, measured in chained volume terms, so it removes the effect of rising prices. GDP in current prices, which includes inflation, is published as a separate series. A claim that the economy "grew by 5%" may be using current prices, so check which measure was used.

Related questions

• How big is the UK economy (GDP)?
• Is the UK in recession?
• How does UK GDP compare with other countries?

More on this source: UK Statistics Authority and Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR)