What are the UK population projections?

The ONS projects the UK population will grow from 69.3 million in mid-2024 to 71.0 million in mid-2034, then peak at 72.5 million in mid-2054 before falling. These are the 2024-based national population projections, published on 28 April 2026, which show slower growth than the previous 2022-based set.

All the projected growth comes from net international migration, assumed to settle at 230,000 a year. Births minus deaths are projected to be negative 450,000 over the ten years to mid-2034. England is projected to grow fastest; Scotland is projected to peak at 5.6 million in mid-2033.

The ONS stresses that projections are not forecasts: they show what happens if recent trends continue and do not predict policy changes. Quote the projection's base year and variant. Local projections are published separately. See forecast or projection.

Official sources: ONS: national population projections (latest) · ONS: population projections

The latest figure

The newest value is at Office for National Statistics (ONS). More on it: Total fertility rate (England and Wales).

When is the next figure out?

Annual. Provisional country-level rates in May using projected populations, final rates with the Birth summary tables in late summer or autumn (8 September 2026 for 2025). Rates can be revised when population estimates are revised

Every official release due in the next two weeks is on the release calendar.

Terms used in this answer

• Mid-year population estimates
  The official annual estimates of how many people live in the UK and each area on 30 June, used as denominators for most per-head figures.
• Dependency ratio
  The number of people of pension age, or of children and pensioners, compared with the number of people of working age.
• Cohort
  A group of people who share a starting point, such as being born in the same year or starting school together, followed over time.
• Crude rate
  A rate calculated by dividing events by the whole population, with no adjustment for differences in age structure between places or over time.
• Calendar year
  January to December. Used for GDP annual totals, registered deaths and many international comparisons, unlike the April to March financial year.
• Revisions
  Changes to previously published figures, made when more complete data, improved methods or updated seasonal factors become available. A normal part of official statistics.

Where the figures come from

• UK population and vital statistics (ONS, National Records of Scotland and NISRA)
  Where to find official UK figures on births, fertility, baby names, marriage, divorce, households, population estimates, projections and the census.

Related questions

• Why is the UK population growing?
• Is the UK population ageing?
• What is the population of the UK?

This answer says where the official figures are published and how they are defined. It gives no verdict on any claim. To report an error, send a correction request. More questions about population, births and families: all Population, births and families questions.