Total fertility rate (England and Wales)

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS), series Total fertility rate (TFR), England and Wales (Table 1). Annual. Provisional country-level rates in May using projected populations, final rates with the Birth summary tables in late summer or autumn (8 September 2026 for 2025). Rates can be revised when population estimates are revised

What it measures

The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman would have if she experienced the age-specific fertility rates of one calendar year throughout her childbearing life. It is built from the birth rate at each age, so it is not affected by how many women there are or their age mix. It describes one year's pattern; it does not predict how many children any group of women will actually have, which the ONS measures separately as completed family size for women born in a given year (a cohort measure).

How to read it

A TFR of about 2.1 is often described as replacement level in countries with low child mortality, meaning the level at which each generation replaces itself without migration. A low TFR in one year can partly reflect women having children later rather than fewer children: the standardised mean age of mothers rose to 31.1 in 2025. TFRs for small areas are volatile and depend on population estimates, so treat local rankings with care. Compare the UK nations using each statistical office's own TFR for the same year.

Background

The ONS birth tables go back to 1938. The ONS reported that the TFR for England and Wales has been falling since 2010, and that the 2024 figure of 1.41 was the lowest on record for the third year running. In 2025 it fell again to 1.39, with England at 1.39 and Wales at 1.33. Luton and Pendle had the highest local rates (1.93) and the City of London the lowest (0.37). Rates rose for women aged 30 to 39 and fell for all other age groups in 2025, a pattern seen since 2023.

Other parts of the UK

National Records of Scotland: births time series data (includes fertility rates) · NISRA: births in Northern Ireland · ONS: conception and fertility rates

What is the fertility rate in the UK?

The ONS publishes the total fertility rate for England and Wales: 1.39 children per woman in 2025. Scotland and Northern Ireland publish their own rates through National Records of Scotland and NISRA. There is no single UK figure in the annual ONS release, so quote the nation and year.

Why is the UK fertility rate so low?

The official statistics describe the change but do not attribute a single cause. They show women having children later, with fertility rising for women in their thirties and falling at younger ages. For the reasons behind individual decisions, the ONS points to separate analysis rather than the birth registration figures.

What is the replacement fertility rate?

Replacement level is commonly put at about 2.1 children per woman in countries with low child mortality. It is the rate at which a population would replace itself over time without migration. England and Wales have been below that level in every year shown in recent ONS releases.

How is the total fertility rate calculated?

The ONS divides births to women of each age by the number of women of that age, then adds these age-specific rates across the childbearing ages. The result is the average number of children per woman if that year's rates applied for a whole lifetime. Population estimates are the denominator, so revisions to them can change the TFR.

Is the fertility rate the same as the birth rate?

No. The crude birth rate is births per 1,000 people of all ages, 9.4 in England and Wales in 2025. The total fertility rate is children per woman and removes the effect of the population's age structure. A place with many young adults can have a high birth rate and a low fertility rate.

Related questions

• What is the UK fertility rate?
• How many babies are born in the UK each year?
• What is the average age of mothers in the UK?
• Is the UK population ageing?
• What are the UK population projections?

More on this source: UK population and vital statistics (ONS, National Records of Scotland and NISRA)