Factcheck LedgerReceipts, not verdicts

Official sources · Questions

Population and vital statistics: births, marriages, households and projections

Vital statistics are the official counts of life events such as births, marriages, civil partnerships and divorces, published by the ONS for England and Wales, National Records of Scotland (NRS) and NISRA for Northern Ireland. The same bodies produce population estimates, population projections and the census, which describe how many people live in the UK, their ages, households, ethnicity and religion. Fact-checkers use them for claims about falling birth rates, an ageing population, marriage and divorce trends and what is driving population growth.

Covers: UK · Release calendar

What it publishes

Key datasets

APIs and downloads

When it publishes

The ONS pre-announces population and vital statistics releases on its release calendar and publishes at 9:30am or 7am. Births data for England and Wales come out in two stages each year: counts in the spring and final fertility rates in late summer or autumn. Mid-year estimates appear in the summer or autumn after the reference year, and marriage statistics about two years after the year they cover. NRS and NISRA publish quarterly vital events tables and their own annual reports.

How to use it to check a claim

  1. Check the geography: many ONS life event releases cover England and Wales only, with Scotland and Northern Ireland published separately by NRS and NISRA.
  2. For births, note whether the figure is a count of births or the total fertility rate; a falling count can reflect fewer women of childbearing age.
  3. Check the period: calendar year, year to mid-year, or year of registration rather than occurrence.
  4. For population growth, use the components of change in the mid-year estimates to separate natural change from net migration.
  5. Treat projections as conditional on their assumptions, quote the base year (for example 2024-based) and note any variant used.
  6. For census topics such as religion and ethnicity, remember the figures describe census day and that some questions are voluntary.
  7. Watch for revisions: the ONS revises recent mid-year estimates when migration data improve.

Common mistakes

Who publishes birth and marriage statistics in the UK?

Each nation has its own registration system. The ONS publishes births, marriages and divorces for England and Wales; National Records of Scotland covers Scotland; and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) covers Northern Ireland. UK totals are built by adding the three, and some UK-wide figures appear in ONS population estimates.

When was the last UK census?

England, Wales and Northern Ireland held their last census on 21 March 2021. Scotland moved its census to 2022 because of the pandemic. Results for each are published separately by the ONS, National Records of Scotland and NISRA, so UK-wide census comparisons combine figures collected a year apart and with some differences in question wording.

What is the difference between population estimates and projections?

Estimates describe the population at a past date, usually 30 June, using census data, registrations and migration evidence. Projections show what the population would be in future if assumed trends in births, deaths and migration continued. Estimates are revised as data improve; projections are replaced by new sets.

Questions answered using this source

Links checked 2026-10-13. This page describes what the source publishes and gives no verdict on any claim.