Russia: economy

How fast is Russia's economy expected to grow?

The Bank of Russia expects GDP growth of 0.0–1.0% in 2026 and 1.5–2.5% in 2027, according to its medium-term forecast of 24 July 2026. GDP grew 1.0% in 2025.

In its key rate decision of 11 September 2026, the bank said the economy was growing at a moderate pace in the third quarter. The IMF's World Economic Outlook data show growth of 0.9% in both 2026 and 2027. Forecasts are revised as new data arrive; the bank publishes an updated forecast after its meeting on 23 October 2026.

Official sources: Bank of Russia: Medium-term forecast, July 2026 · Bank of Russia: Key rate decision, 11 September 2026 · IMF DataMapper: Real GDP growth, Russia

What is Russia's current account surplus?

Russia's current account surplus was US$39 billion in 2025, and the Bank of Russia forecasts US$48 billion in 2026 and US$25 billion in 2027, according to its medium-term forecast of 24 July 2026.

The current account adds trade in goods and services to income flows with the rest of the world. In the forecast, the goods surplus is US$119 billion in 2026, while services show a deficit of US$50 billion and income flows a deficit of US$22 billion. The surplus is expected to narrow to US$10 billion by 2029.

Official sources: Bank of Russia: Medium-term forecast, July 2026

How much does Russia export and import?

Russia exported goods worth US$420 billion in 2025 and imported US$306 billion, according to the balance of payments figures in the Bank of Russia's medium-term forecast of 24 July 2026. The bank forecasts goods exports of US$458 billion and imports of US$339 billion in 2026.

Services exports were US$46 billion and services imports US$95 billion in 2025. The figures are in US dollars on a balance of payments basis, so they can differ from customs statistics. Export values depend partly on oil prices: the forecast assumes a Russian oil price for tax purposes of US$60 a barrel in 2026.

Official sources: Bank of Russia: Medium-term forecast, July 2026

Is investment in Russia rising or falling?

Gross fixed capital formation in Russia fell 0.4% in 2025, and the Bank of Russia forecasts a change of between −1.5% and +0.5% in 2026, followed by growth of 2.0–4.0% in 2027, according to its medium-term forecast of 24 July 2026.

Gross fixed capital formation measures investment in buildings, machinery and other fixed assets, adjusted for prices. In September the bank said investment activity continued to recover compared with early 2026. Household consumption grew 3.6% in 2025, and the forecast is 1.5–2.5% for 2026.

Official sources: Bank of Russia: Medium-term forecast, July 2026 · Bank of Russia: Key rate decision, 11 September 2026

What oil price does Russia's budget assume?

Russia's 2027–2029 budget bill sets a base oil price of US$50 a barrel from 2027, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on 12 October 2026, according to the Ministry of Finance. The government's 2027 forecast assumes an Urals price of US$53, according to another ministry release.

Under the budget rule, oil and gas revenue above the amount implied by the base price is saved, and shortfalls can be covered from the National Wealth Fund. The Bank of Russia's July forecast puts the average oil price for tax purposes at US$56 in 2025 and assumes US$60 in 2026.

Official sources: Ministry of Finance: Siluanov on the 2027–2029 budget (Russian) · Ministry of Finance: Non-oil deficit (Russian) · Bank of Russia: Medium-term forecast, July 2026

What is Russia's economic growth rate?

The World Bank puts real GDP growth in Russia at 1.0% in 2025. The peak was 8.5% in 2007 and the low -7.8% in 2009. Europe & Central Asia median: 2.1%; Russia is 38th highest of 49. Of 180 countries with 2025 data, 155th highest.

What is GDP per capita in Russia?

According to the World Bank, GDP per person in Russia was $17,547 in 2025. That is the highest since at least 2005. Across Europe & Central Asia the middle value was $28,420, and Russia placed 33rd highest of 49. Worldwide: 59th of 180.

What is Russia's GDP per person adjusted for prices?

$49,568 in international dollars: that is GDP per person at purchasing power parity in Russia for 2025, according to the World Bank. It is the top of the series, which starts in 2005. It is 28th highest of 49 in Europe & Central Asia, where the median is $50,946 in international dollars. Worldwide: 43rd of 179.

What share of Russia's economy is exports?

The World Bank puts exports of goods and services in Russia at 18.2% of GDP in 2025. It is the bottom of the series, which starts in 2005. Europe & Central Asia median: 47.7% of GDP; Russia is 45th highest of 46. Worldwide: 111th of 133.

What is Russia's current account balance?

The latest figure from the IMF, for 2025, is 1.5% of GDP. Since 2005 it has ranged from 1.5% of GDP (2013) to 11.0% of GDP (2005). It is 16th highest of 47 in Europe & Central Asia, where the median is -0.3% of GDP. Worldwide: 43rd of 132.

How much foreign investment does Russia receive?

In 2025, net inflows of foreign direct investment in Russia was 0.4% of GDP, according to the IMF. Since 2005 it has ranged from -1.7% of GDP (2022) to 4.5% of GDP (2008). Across Europe & Central Asia the middle value was 1.9% of GDP, and Russia placed 37th highest of 49. Worldwide: 147th of 179.

What interest rate do banks charge in Russia?

17.1%: that is the average bank lending rate in Russia for 2024, according to the IMF. It is the top of the series, which starts in 2005. It is 4th highest of 21 in Europe & Central Asia, where the median is 8.9%. Worldwide: 16th of 89.