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Office for Budget Responsibility: forecasts, costings and public finances data

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the UK's official independent fiscal watchdog, created in 2010 to forecast the economy and public finances and to judge the Government's performance against its fiscal targets. It publishes the Economic and fiscal outlook at each Budget and Spring Statement, scrutinises the costing of every tax and welfare measure, and releases spreadsheets of past forecasts and outturns. Fact-checkers use it to test claims about borrowing, debt, the tax burden and what a policy will raise or cost.

Covers: UK · Release calendar

What it publishes

• The Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), a five-year forecast for the economy and public finances published alongside each Budget and Spring Statement, with an assessment of whether the Government is on course to meet its fiscal targets.
• Its view on the Government's costing of each tax and welfare measure announced at a fiscal event, stating whether it endorses each costing as reasonable and central and giving each one an uncertainty rating.
• Fiscal risks and sustainability, an annual report on the main risks to the public finances and long-term projections of spending, receipts and debt over several decades.
• The Forecast evaluation report, an annual comparison of earlier forecasts with what happened, breaking the differences into data revisions, policy changes and economic surprises.
• A monthly commentary on the ONS and HM Treasury public sector finances release, comparing year-to-date borrowing with the monthly profile implied by its latest forecast.
• A public finances databank of receipts, spending, borrowing and debt in cash, per cent of GDP and real terms, updated each month with the latest outturn.
• Long-run spreadsheets: a historical public finances database covering about 300 years, a database of official forecasts since 1970, and a database of Budget policy measures since 1970.
• The Welfare trends report and 'tax by tax, spend by spend' pages explaining each forecast line, plus devolved tax forecasts for Scotland and Wales.

Key datasets

• Economic and fiscal outlook (latest)
  The current EFO with its executive summary, chapters on the economy, receipts, spending and fiscal targets, and links to charts and detailed forecast tables. Covers the UK over a five-year horizon. This address redirects to the most recent edition.
  Updated: Twice a year, at each Budget and Spring Statement
• Public finances databank 2026-27
  Monthly editions of the databank for the current financial year: borrowing, debt, receipts and spending in cash, per cent of GDP and real terms, combining OBR forecasts with ONS outturn and a sheet on public finances since 1900.
  Updated: Monthly, about two working days after the ONS public finances release
• Policy costings and policy databases
  Explains how the OBR scrutinises Treasury costings and links to the policy measures database (tax measures since 1970, spending measures since 2010), the uncertainty ratings database (since 2014) and the policy risks database.
  Updated: Updated at every fiscal forecast
• Historical public finances database
  About 300 years of UK tax, spending, borrowing and debt data in cash and per cent of GDP, useful for testing 'highest since' and 'record' claims about the tax burden or debt.
  Updated: Occasional updates; current edition July 2023
• Historical official forecasts database
  Successive OBR forecasts since 2010, and most Treasury forecasts before that (some back to 1970), alongside outturn for the main tax, spending and fiscal aggregate lines.
  Updated: Updated at every fiscal forecast
• Monthly public finances commentary
  A short PDF commentary for each month's public sector finances data, comparing borrowing so far in the year with the OBR's monthly forecast profile; archive from 2011-12.
  Updated: Monthly, on the day of the ONS public sector finances release
• Fiscal risks and sustainability: July 2026
  The latest report on fiscal risks and long-term projections of UK public debt, with charts and tables to download.
  Updated: Annual, usually in summer
• Forecast evaluation report: June 2026
  The latest assessment of how OBR forecasts compared with outturn, including its estimates of fiscal multipliers.
  Updated: Annual
• Tax by tax, spend by spend
  One page per forecast line (income tax, NICs, VAT, fuel duties, universal credit, pensioner benefits and others) explaining what it covers, how it has changed and the latest forecast.
  Updated: Updated after forecasts; some pages lag
• Welfare trends report: June 2026
  In-depth analysis of the drivers of welfare spending in the UK, inside and outside the welfare cap.
  Updated: Every one to two years

APIs and downloads

• OBR data page
  Index of all OBR spreadsheets (XLSX and ZIP): databank, historical forecasts, ready reckoners, long-term economic determinants, policy measures, uncertainty ratings, forecast revisions and policy risks. No API and no key; files are free to download.
• Policy measures database (XLSX)
  Direct download that redirects to the latest edition. Lists Budget and fiscal event measures with their costings by year.
• Policy costings uncertainty ratings database (XLSX)
  Direct download that redirects to the latest edition; one subjective uncertainty rating per certified costing.
• Policy risks database (XLSX)
  Direct download of government ambitions and intentions judged not firm enough to include in the central forecast.
• Forecast revisions database (XLSX)
  Breaks revisions to each fiscal forecast since 2010 into underlying, classification and policy changes. The download slug carries an older date but currently serves the March 2026 file.
• Historical official forecasts database (XLSX)
  Direct download that redirects to the latest edition of the forecasts database.

When it publishes

The Chancellor sets the dates of OBR forecasts when choosing the date of a Budget or Spring Statement and normally gives the OBR ten weeks' notice. The EFO is published as soon as the Chancellor finishes the statement in Parliament. The next EFO is scheduled for Wednesday 28 October 2026. The monthly commentary appears on the day of the ONS public sector finances release, and the databank follows about two working days later. Fiscal risks and sustainability and the Forecast evaluation report are annual. The publications page lists the next due date for each series.

How to use it to check a claim

1. For a claim about what a tax rise will raise or a policy will cost, find the measure in the policy measures database or the policy chapter of the EFO for the fiscal event at which it was announced, and note the OBR's certified figure and its uncertainty rating.
2. If a pledge is not in the central forecast, check the policy risks database, which lists stated government ambitions that the OBR judged too uncertain to include.
3. For 'highest since' claims about the tax burden, debt or spending, use per cent of GDP from the databank or the historical public finances database, and state the start year of the series you checked.
4. Separate outturn from forecast: the databank and EFO tables mix ONS outturn for past years with OBR projections for future years, and the column headers mark the switch.
5. To test a claim that borrowing is running above or below plan, read the monthly commentary, which compares the year-to-date figure with the OBR's own monthly profile rather than with the full-year total.
6. When someone quotes an old forecast, use the historical official forecasts database to see which edition it came from and what later editions and outturn showed.
7. Check which fiscal year is meant: OBR figures are for financial years running April to March, written as 2026-27.

Common mistakes

• OBR figures are forecasts conditional on current government policy; they are not predictions of what a future government will do, and they change at every fiscal event.
• The OBR is barred by the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011 from considering alternative policies, so it does not cost opposition or manifesto pledges. A figure attributed to the OBR for a party proposal needs a source.
• Headroom against a fiscal rule is a forecast quantity that depends on the target year and the measure the rule uses, so it moves with each forecast and should be quoted with the EFO it came from.
• Cash totals rise with inflation and economic growth, so comparisons over long periods are more meaningful in per cent of GDP or in real terms.
• Public sector net borrowing, the current budget and public sector net debt are different measures, and the OBR's own definitions of debt (for example including or excluding the Bank of England) can differ between rules.
• The OBR assesses whether costings are reasonable and central; it does not judge whether a policy is good value or desirable, which its Charter rules out.

Does the OBR cost opposition party policies?

No. The Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011 says the OBR must not consider alternative policies, so it only assesses the current Government's policies. Parliament discussed changing this in 2014 and the Treasury's 2015 review recommended against it. Any costing of an opposition or manifesto pledge comes from another source, not from the OBR.

How often does the OBR publish forecasts?

Usually twice a year, in an Economic and fiscal outlook published with the Autumn Budget and with the Spring Statement. The OBR only produces a forecast when the Government formally requests one for a fiscal event, so it does not update its forecasts in between. It does publish other reports, a monthly commentary on public finances data and an updated databank between forecasts.

Where can I find past OBR forecasts?

The historical official forecasts database on the OBR data page contains every OBR forecast since 2010, plus most Treasury forecasts from before the OBR existed, alongside outturn. Each EFO page also keeps its own charts and detailed tables, and the Forecast evaluation report explains how earlier forecasts compared with what happened.

Does the OBR say whether government spending is good value for money?

No. The Charter for Budget Responsibility states that the OBR should not provide normative commentary on the merits of government policies. It forecasts how much will be spent and raised under current policy. Value for money in past spending is examined for Parliament by the National Audit Office.

Questions answered using this source

• What is the UK debt to GDP ratio?
• What is the OBR and what does it forecast?
• How much is the UK government borrowing?
• How much does the UK spend on debt interest?
• How much does the UK spend on benefits?
• When is the next OBR forecast?
• How do I check a government spending or tax promise?

Links checked 2026-10-13. This page describes what the source publishes and gives no verdict on any claim.