What is the OBR and what does it forecast?

The Office for Budget Responsibility is the UK's independent fiscal watchdog, set up in 2010 and placed on a statutory footing by the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011. It produces the official forecasts for the economy and public finances.

Twice a year it publishes an Economic and fiscal outlook alongside the Budget and the spring statement, which forecasts growth, inflation, unemployment, tax receipts, spending, borrowing and debt, and says whether the government is on course to meet its fiscal rules. It also certifies the costings of tax and spending measures announced at fiscal events.

See our OBR guide for how to use it against spending promises.

Official sources: Office for Budget Responsibility · OBR Economic and fiscal outlook

The latest figure

The newest value is at Office for National Statistics (ONS). More on it: UK public sector net borrowing.

When is the next figure out?

Monthly, usually around the third week of the month, 7am; next release 21 October 2026

Every official release due in the next two weeks is on the release calendar.

Terms used in this answer

• Fiscal rules
  Targets the government sets for itself on borrowing and debt, written into the Charter for Budget Responsibility and assessed by the Office for Budget Responsibility.
• Forecast and projection
  A forecast is a best estimate of what will happen. A projection shows what would happen if stated assumptions hold, without claiming they will.
• Fiscal headroom
  The margin by which the government is forecast to meet its main fiscal rule. It is a forecast, not money in a bank account, and it changes every time the OBR updates its numbers.
• Structural deficit
  The part of government borrowing that would remain even if the economy were running at its normal capacity. Also called the cyclically adjusted deficit.
• Public sector net borrowing (PSNB)
  The gap between what the public sector spends and what it receives in a period. Often called the deficit; it adds to debt.
• Public sector net debt (PSND)
  The public sector's financial liabilities, mainly government bonds, minus its liquid assets such as cash. The headline measure of the national debt.

Where the figures come from

• UK tax rates, allowances and taxpayer statistics (GOV.UK, HMRC, OBR, Revenue Scotland and Welsh Revenue Authority)
  Where to check official UK income tax bands, National Insurance, VAT, stamp duty, inheritance tax and taxpayer numbers, and how to test tax claims.
• Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
  Where to find OBR forecasts, policy costings, the public finances databank and 300 years of fiscal data, and how to test tax and spending pledges.

Related questions

• How do I check a government spending or tax promise?
• When is the next OBR forecast?
• What is the UK national debt?

This answer says where the official figures are published and how they are defined. It gives no verdict on any claim. To report an error, send a correction request. More questions about public finances, tax and the obr: all Public finances, tax and the OBR questions.