How has Brexit affected UK trade?

The official benchmark is the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), whose forecasts assume that UK exports and imports will both be around 15% lower in the long run than if the UK had stayed in the EU, and that productivity will be 4% lower. The OBR sets out these assumptions, and the evidence behind them, on its Brexit analysis page, last updated in July 2026.

The OBR also judges that new trade deals with non-EU countries are unlikely to have a material effect, because many roll over deals the UK had as an EU member. UK-EU trade has been governed by the Trade and Cooperation Agreement since 1 January 2021.

These are modelled estimates against a scenario that did not happen, so they cannot be observed directly. Raw before-and-after comparisons are affected by the pandemic, inflation and a break in how goods trade was recorded.

Official sources: OBR: Brexit analysis · UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement

The latest figure

The newest value is at Office for National Statistics (ONS). More on it: UK trade balance (goods and services).

When is the next figure out?

Monthly, about six weeks after the month ends, 7am; next release 15 October 2026

Every official release due in the next two weeks is on the release calendar.

Terms used in this answer

• Cash terms
  A money figure stated at the prices of the time it refers to, with no adjustment for inflation. Also called nominal terms.
• Seasonally adjusted
  Figures that have had regular calendar patterns removed, such as Christmas shopping or summer jobs, so that underlying movements between months or quarters can be seen.
• Revisions
  Changes to previously published figures, made when more complete data, improved methods or updated seasonal factors become available. A normal part of official statistics.
• Rolling average
  An average recalculated each period over a fixed window, such as the latest three months or twelve months, to smooth out short-term ups and downs.

Where the figures come from

• UK trade statistics (ONS, HMRC uktradeinfo and Department for Business and Trade)
  Where to find official UK trade figures: the ONS trade bulletin and balance of payments, HMRC uktradeinfo by product code, and DBT country factsheets.

Related questions

• How much does the UK export to the EU?
• How many trade deals does the UK have?
• What is the OBR and what does it forecast?

This answer says where the official figures are published and how they are defined. It gives no verdict on any claim. To report an error, send a correction request. More questions about trade, exports and brexit: all Trade, exports and Brexit questions.