The UK Statistics Authority wrote to Max Wilkinson MP about fiscal impact of settlement policy

11 May 2026 · Penny Young, Chair, UK Statistics Authority

The letter, dated 11 May 2026, replies to correspondence of 9 March 2026. The UK Statistics Authority published it as Letter from Penny Young to Max Wilkinson MP – fiscal impact of settlement policy; it links to 2 official records. Below are 3 passages from the letter in the regulator's own words.

What the UK Statistics Authority wrote

“We contacted the Home Office who confirmed the £10 billion figure is an estimate of the lifetime net fiscal cost of this cohort under existing settlement rules.”

“While we agree that a clearer statement of the counterfactual, which is a scenario where no migrants from this cohort settle between 2026 and 2030, or an acknowledgement that this is not an estimate of the fiscal savings associated with delaying settlement, would have provided greater clarity, we recognise that in the context of an oral speech it can be hard to convey the detail and nuance of modelling.”

“Taking the speech and research note together, we consider that the Secretary of State’s statement has met our expectations for public communication of statistics.”

From Penny Young, Chair, UK Statistics Authority, letter of 11 May 2026. Read the full letter.

The words the letter quotes

The letter quotes 2 passages from the public record:

“We will address the challenge posed by the impending settlement of the hundreds of thousands of low-skilled workers and their dependants who arrived between 2022 and 2024. That means applying any rule changes to those who are in the UK today but have not yet received settled status. If we do not, we will see a £10 billion pound drain on our public finances.”

Source named in the letter: speech to the Institute for Public Policy Research

“In this methodology note, the estimates produced for the fiscal lifetime cost of care workers and adult dependants for the 2022/23 cohort are applied to the Home Office settlement forecasts between 2026 and 2030 to produce an estimate of the lifetime fiscal cost of the cohort expected to settle.”

Source named in the letter: research note

Records the letter links to

• speech to the Institute for Public Policy Research
• research note (gov.uk)

Correspondence

• The letter it answered: Max Wilkinson MP to Penny Young – fiscal impact of settlement policy (9 March 2026)

More on Max Wilkinson.

Receipt