The Office for Statistics Regulation wrote to Trevor Huddleston about Universal Credit estimates

29 March 2018 · Ed Humpherson, Director General for Regulation, Office for Statistics Regulation

The letter is dated 29 March 2018. The Office for Statistics Regulation published it as Universal Credit estimates. Below are 4 passages from the letter in the regulator's own words.

What the Office for Statistics Regulation wrote

“A concern was raised with us about the recent use by Ministers in the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) of an estimate of the number of people expected to benefit from Universal Credit (UC).”

“The concern relates to the figure in the claim “Universal Credit is likely to mean that 250,000 more people will be in work” and whether or not it was used appropriately by Ministers.”

“Second, it would be helpful to include a statement about the uncertainty around the overall estimate and the individual components of the estimate.”

“Finally, I encourage you to add a short summary of how you combined the three component estimates to arrive at the overall figure, and the degree of independence of the component estimates (whether you expect any overlaps between individuals moving into work due to improved financial incentives, improvements in simplicity and smoother transition to work, and extended conditionality).”

From Ed Humpherson, Director General for Regulation, Office for Statistics Regulation, letter of 29 March 2018. Read the full letter.

Related key figures

• People on Universal Credit (Great Britain)
• UK employment rate

Receipt