Sarah Olney on unemployment, Spring Forecast debate 3 March 2026

The statement

In the three months to December, unemployment reached 5.2%, the highest rate for nearly five years, and youth unemployment has hit a staggering 16%.

Sarah Olney, 3 March 2026. Source

What the sources report

• Office for National Statistics, series MGSX (Unemployment rate (aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted): %), release of 2026-09-14 reports unemployment rate, aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted (Oct–Dec 2025): 5.2%^src
• Office for National Statistics, series MGSX (Unemployment rate (aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted): %), release of 2026-09-14 reports unemployment rate, aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted (Nov–Jan 2021): 5%^src
• Office for National Statistics, series MGWY (LFS: Unemployment rate: UK: All: Aged 16-24: %: SA), release of 2026-09-14 reports unemployment rate, aged 16 to 24, seasonally adjusted (Oct–Dec 2025): 16.1%^src
• Office for National Statistics, series MGSX reports unemployment rate, aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted (Apr–Jun 2026, latest): 4.7%^src
• Office for National Statistics, series MGWY reports unemployment rate, aged 16 to 24, seasonally adjusted (Apr–Jun 2026, latest): 15.6%^src

Notes

The ONS series shows unemployment of 5.2% for October to December 2025 and 16.1% for people aged 16 to 24 in the same period.

The series shows 5.0% for November 2020 to January 2021 and 5.2% for October to December 2020.

The latest figures are 4.9% overall and 16.4% for 16 to 24-year-olds, for April to June 2026.