How to check a claim about immigration numbers
UK immigration figures come from two main producers. The ONS estimates long-term migration (people moving for a year or more) and net migration. The Home Office counts visas, asylum claims, small boat arrivals, returns and settlement. They measure different things, so a visa total cannot be compared with net migration. To check a claim, identify which measure is meant, the 12-month period, and whether the figure is provisional.
Step 1: identify the measure
Most immigration claims use one of these:
Net migration : long-term immigration minus long-term emigration, from the ONS. See net migration and what net migration is .
Visas granted : from the Home Office, by route (work, study, family, visitor).
Asylum claims and decisions : Home Office; see asylum applications .
Small boat arrivals : Home Office; see small boat arrivals .
Returns and deportations : Home Office; see deportations and removals .
"Immigration" on its own is ambiguous. Ask which of these the speaker means before checking.
Step 2: net migration from the ONS
The ONS defines long-term immigration as a move to the UK "for 12 months or more". Its latest bulletin, Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025 , was published on 21 May 2026. It said:
net migration was 171,000 in the year ending December 2025, down from an updated 331,000 a year earlier;
immigration was 813,000 and emigration 642,000;
the peak was 944,000 in the year ending March 2023.
Two points matter for checking. First, these are "official statistics in development" and provisional: "Estimates stay provisional for a year, until we replace them with more complete revised estimates." The year ending December 2024 figure has already been revised, so a claim quoting the old number may be accurate for the release it came from. Second, the ONS gives uncertainty intervals: for net migration, 145,000 to 197,000. See how to understand revisions .
Source: Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025
Step 3: visas and asylum from the Home Office
The Home Office publishes immigration system statistics every quarter. The latest release, for the year ending June 2026, was published on 27 August 2026. Its summary says:
"there were 727,000 visas issued for a non-visit reason in the latest year";
235,000 work visas were granted, including dependants, "18% fewer than the previous year and 62% fewer than in the YE December 2023";
there were 2.2 million visitor visas and 23.2 million Electronic Travel Authorisations.
The Home Office's own note warns that "data in different parts of the immigration system is not always comparable." For the latest small boat counts see small boat crossings .
Sources: immigration system statistics, summary
Worked example: "727,000 visas, so net migration must be far higher than 171,000"
Both numbers are official, but they cannot be compared directly:
Different periods. The visa figure is for the year ending June 2026; the ONS net migration figure is for the year ending December 2025.
Visas are not arrivals. A visa is a permission. Some people granted one never travel, and some visas are for less than 12 months.
Immigration is not net migration. Net migration subtracts the 642,000 people the ONS estimates emigrated, including British and EU+ nationals. The ONS put net migration of British nationals at minus 136,000 and EU+ nationals at minus 42,000.
Coverage. Visa figures exclude British and Irish citizens and most EU nationals with settled status, who do not need visas.
A comparison that would work: ONS non-EU+ immigration (627,000 in the year ending December 2025) against Home Office entry clearance visas for a non-visit reason over the same calendar year, taken from the Home Office data tables for that period. Even then the two will differ, because the ONS estimates actual moves of 12 months or more, while the Home Office counts permissions granted.
Worked example: small boats and asylum in the same release
The Home Office summary for the year ending June 2026 also shows how easily related numbers get mixed up:
"there were 38,000 detected arrivals via illegal entry routes", of which small boat arrivals "accounted for 33,000 (88%)";
"86,000 people claimed asylum", and "just over half of asylum seekers arrived through illegal entry routes, such as small boats, while a further 41% of claimants had previously held a visa or other leave";
40,000 people were awaiting an initial decision at the end of June 2026, and 16,000 supported asylum seekers were in hotel accommodation.
So "86,000 people crossed the Channel to claim asylum" would combine two different counts: asylum claims include people who arrived on visas, and not every small boat arrival is counted in the same 12 months as their claim. Equally, people "in the asylum system" awaiting a first decision are a much smaller group than everyone receiving asylum support. See asylum seekers in hotels .
Step 4: check the wording of the claim
"Record" : check which series and from when. ONS comparable estimates in the current bulletin run from the year ending June 2012.
"Halved" : 171,000 against 331,000 is a fall of about 48%. Check whether the earlier figure is the original or revised one; see how to check a percentage claim .
"Illegal immigration" : the Home Office reports detected illegal entry, mainly small boats. Nobody can count undetected entry.
"Asylum seekers" : people who have claimed asylum and are awaiting a decision, not everyone who arrived irregularly.
Stock or flow : the number of people born abroad living in the UK (a stock) is a different statistic from yearly migration (a flow).
Checklist
Measure identified (net migration, visas, asylum, small boats, returns)
Producer identified (ONS or Home Office)
12-month period matched exactly
Provisional or revised status noted
Uncertainty interval noted for ONS estimates
Visas not compared directly with net migration
Coverage checked (British, EU+, non-EU+)
Official sources used in this guide
Sources: ONS: Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025, Home Office: immigration system statistics quarterly release, Home Office: summary of latest statistics, year ending June 2026, Home Office: migrants detected crossing the English Channel in small boats
Questions
Who publishes official UK net migration figures?
The ONS. Its latest estimate, for the year ending December 2025, was published on 21 May 2026. See our net migration key figure .
Source: ONS: Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025
Why do Home Office and ONS figures differ?
The Home Office counts administrative events such as visas granted. The ONS estimates actual long-term moves in and out, including British nationals.
Source: ONS: Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025
Are migration estimates revised?
Yes. ONS estimates stay provisional for a year and are routinely revised.
Source: ONS: Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025
Where is the asylum backlog figure?
In the Home Office quarterly release, under people in the asylum system; see our Home Office statistics guide .
Source: ONS: Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025