How to check a statistic: a step-by-step method using official sources
To check a statistic, find the official release it comes from, then confirm the measure, the geography, the time period, the release date and the statistic's status. If any of those differ from the claim, the number may be accurate but describe something else. The worked example below traces a single inflation figure back to the ONS bulletin and its series ID.
The short method
Most statistical claims can be checked in five questions. Write each answer down as you go, because the gaps are usually where a number has drifted from its source.
What exactly is being measured? Not just "inflation" or "unemployment", but which measure: CPI or CPIH, the ILO unemployment rate or the claimant count.
Where? The UK, Great Britain, England and Wales, or England only. Many series stop at a national border because the subject is devolved.
When? The period the figure covers (a month, a quarter, a financial year, "the 12 months to") and the date it was published.
Who produced it, and with what status? An accredited official statistic, an official statistic in development, management information, or a figure that appears only in a speech or press release.
Is it still the latest? A figure can be accurate for the release it came from and then be superseded or revised.
The rest of this guide shows each step on a real release.
Step 1: write the claim down in full
Copy the claim word for word, with where and when it was made. Underline the number, the unit (per cent, pounds, people), the place and any time words such as "now", "this year" or "since 2010". These are the parts you will match against the source.
Example claim: "Inflation is now 3.1%." The number is 3.1, the unit is a percentage, the place is unstated (so assume the UK) and "now" means the latest published figure on the day it was said.
Step 2: find the producer and the release
Identify who publishes the measure. For national economic and population figures that is usually the Office for National Statistics; for health, crime, benefits or schools it is often a government department or a devolved statistics producer. Our guide to the UK Statistics Authority explains how official statistics are organised.
On the ONS website the quickest routes are:
the release calendar , filtered to "Published", to find the bulletin that came out closest to the date of the claim;
the search box, which also accepts a four-character series ID (called a CDID) such as D7G7.
Use the dated version of a bulletin, not the "latest" link. A "latest" URL moves to the next release each month, so a citation to it will later point at a different number.
Source: release calendar
Step 3: match the measure, period and status
Open the release and read the header and the "Main points" before anything else. Check that the figure in the claim appears there with the same definition and period. Then scroll to the section on data sources and quality to confirm the status of the statistics.
Things that commonly differ between a claim and its source:
a monthly change quoted as if it were an annual rate, or the other way round;
a different measure from the same release (several are often published side by side);
a headline figure used where the claim is about a sub-group or a region;
a figure from an earlier release that has since been updated or revised .
Worked example: tracing "inflation is 3.1%"
Suppose the claim was made in late September 2026. On 13 October 2026 we opened the ONS bulletin Consumer price inflation, UK: August 2026 . This is what it shows.
Release details. Release date 16 September 2026; next release 21 October 2026. So any claim made between those dates using "now" should match the August 2026 figures.
The measure. The Main points say: "The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026, up from 2.9% the previous month." The same bulletin gives CPIH at 3.3% and states that "The annual RPI inflation rate was 3.4% in August 2026." The claim matches CPI , not CPIH or RPI .
The period. 3.1% is the 12-month rate. The monthly rate in the same bulletin is different: "On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.5% in August 2026."
The status. Section 8 says CPI and CPIH are accredited official statistics, "independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in July 2017". The bulletin also says the RPI does not meet the standard for accreditation, which matters if a claim relies on RPI.
The series. The annual CPI rate is ONS series D7G7 , and the index behind it is D7BT (2015 = 100). In the series CSV we downloaded, D7G7 reads 3.1 for "2026 AUG" and D7BT reads 143.6.
Result: the figure matches the official release, measure and period. A fuller description would be "CPI inflation was 3.1% in the 12 months to August 2026 (ONS, published 16 September 2026)". For what the latest figure is today, see our CPI inflation key figure page .
Sources: Consumer price inflation, UK: August 2026, D7G7, D7BT
Step 4: add context from the same source
A single figure rarely tells the whole story, so take context from the same official release rather than from elsewhere. In the example, the bulletin itself gives the previous month (2.9%), the figure a year earlier (Table 1 shows CPI at 3.8% in August 2025) and core CPI (2.6%). The inflation target the Bank of England works to is explained in our answer on the UK inflation target .
If you compare two periods, check the comparison uses the same measure and the same release. Mixing an old release for one year with a new release for another can introduce a difference caused only by revisions. See how to understand revisions .
Step 5: record the source properly
Keep a short note for every figure you check:
the publisher and the exact title of the release;
the release date and the period covered;
the table, chart or series ID, so anyone can find the same cell;
the date you opened it.
If a figure cannot be traced to any published source, say that plainly rather than guessing where it came from. If you think an official figure has been used publicly in a way that does not match its source, the Office for Statistics Regulation accepts concerns from anyone: see how to raise a concern about the use of statistics .
Checklist
Claim copied word for word, with where and when it was said
Producer and dated release found (not a moving 'latest' link)
Measure matches (for example CPI, not CPIH or RPI)
Geography and period match (UK, 12 months to, financial year)
Status checked: accredited, in development, or management information
Series ID or table reference noted
Checked whether a newer or revised figure exists
Official sources used in this guide
Sources: ONS release calendar, ONS: Consumer price inflation, UK: August 2026, ONS series D7G7: CPI annual rate, OSR: accredited official statistics, Code of Practice for Statistics, OSR: raise a concern (casework)