How to check a government spending pledge
To check a spending pledge, find the official document it comes from, then identify the start and end years, whether the money is in cash or real terms, whether it is an annual or a cumulative amount, which budget it covers and which part of the UK. These details can make the same plan sound larger or smaller. Later, HM Treasury's PESA tables and the OBR show what was actually spent.
Where spending plans are published
Spending Reviews set departmental budgets for several years. Documents are on GOV.UK, for example the Spending Review 2025 document .
Budgets and fiscal statements from HM Treasury, with the Office for Budget Responsibility publishing its Economic and Fiscal Outlook alongside. See our guide to the OBR .
Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses (PESA) , HM Treasury's annual official statistics on spending by department, function and region. PESA 2026 was published on 16 July 2026, with chapter tables in Excel.
Sources: Spending Review 2025 document, Office for Budget Responsibility, PESA 2026
Budget terms you will meet
DEL (departmental expenditure limits): the budgets departments control, split into resource (day-to-day running costs, such as pay) and capital (investment, such as buildings and equipment).
AME (annually managed expenditure): spending that is harder to set in advance, such as most social security and debt interest.
TME (total managed expenditure): DEL plus AME, the broadest measure of public spending.
Outturn: what was actually spent, as opposed to plans or forecasts.
A pledge about "public spending" might refer to any of these. A large rise in one department's resource DEL can sit alongside flat total spending, and the other way round.
The six questions to ask of any pledge
From when to when? The baseline year chosen changes the size of an increase.
Cash or real terms? If real, which deflator and which price year? See cash vs real terms .
Annual or cumulative? "£X billion more a year by 2029" is different from "£X billion over five years".
Which budget? Day-to-day spending (resource DEL), investment (capital DEL), or total managed expenditure including welfare and debt interest.
Which area? Many departmental budgets cover England only. The devolved governments receive related funding through the Barnett formula.
New or existing money? Check whether the amount was already in previous plans.
Worked example: the NHS settlement in Spending Review 2025
On 13 October 2026 we opened the Spending Review 2025 document , published by HM Treasury on 11 June 2025. It says:
"The government is providing a £29 billion real terms increase (£53 billion cash increase) in annual NHS day-to-day spending from 2023-24 to 2028-29. This will take spending to £226 billion by 2028-29, equivalent to a 3.0% average annual real terms growth rate over the SR period."
Applying the six questions:
Years: the comparison runs from 2023-24 to 2028-29. The baseline is 2023-24, so the increase includes growth in years before the document was published. A comparison from 2025-26 would give a smaller number.
Cash or real: both are given. The £24 billion gap between the £53 billion cash figure and the £29 billion real figure is the expected effect of inflation. A table note in the document says "Real terms figures at Spending Review 2025 use the OBR's Spring 2025 GDP deflator forecast", so they could change if inflation turns out differently.
Annual or cumulative: "annual" means the 2028-29 budget is £29 billion higher in real terms than the 2023-24 budget. It is not £29 billion extra in every year, and not a five-year total.
Which budget: "day-to-day spending", that is resource spending. Capital is separate: the same document gives a "£2.3 billion real terms increase (£4 billion cash increase)" in the health department's annual capital budget from 2023-24 to 2029-30, a different end year.
Which area: the NHS in England. The document says the devolved governments receive, on average, an additional £4.8 billion a year for day-to-day spending between 2026-27 and 2028-29 through the Barnett formula, which they allocate to their own priorities.
Growth rate: 3.0% is an average annual real growth rate across the period, not the rise in any single year.
A precise summary would be: "Spending Review 2025 planned NHS England day-to-day spending of £226 billion in 2028-29, £29 billion more in real terms (2025 deflator forecast) than in 2023-24."
The same document uses other baselines elsewhere. Administration budgets, for instance, are cut "against 2025-26 administration budgets". Check the baseline for each line separately.
Source: Spending Review 2025 document
Other ways the same plan can be presented
Cumulative totals. Adding the increase in each year over several years gives a much larger figure than the increase in the final year. Both can be correct; the claim should say which it is.
Per head. Spending per person grows more slowly than the total when the population is rising.
Share of GDP. A budget can rise in real terms and stay flat as a share of national income if the economy also grows.
Different deflators. Plans set at one fiscal event are often restated in real terms at the next using a new deflator forecast, so the "real" figure can change without any change in cash plans.
Checking what was actually spent
Plans are not outturn. To see what happened:
PESA tables give outturn and plans by department in cash and real terms, with the deflator used;
the OBR's Economic and Fiscal Outlook, for example the March 2026 edition , sets out current spending forecasts;
departmental annual reports and accounts record spending for each financial year.
Our answers on checking a spending promise and how tax revenue is spent point to the right tables. See also outturn .
Source: March 2026 edition
Checklist
Found the official document and its date
Noted the baseline year and end year
Identified cash or real terms, and the deflator used
Checked annual versus cumulative
Identified the budget (resource, capital or total)
Checked England-only or UK-wide
Looked up outturn in PESA or the OBR later
Official sources used in this guide
Sources: HM Treasury: Spending Review 2025 document, HM Treasury: Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses 2026, OBR: Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2026, HM Treasury: GDP deflators at market prices, and money GDP, Office for Budget Responsibility